The drugged racehorse

[slotdirt]

I disagree on the first point at least, and definitely have issues with your other assertions. Take a horse, for instance, who might be part of a partnership or otherwise has many connections who all bet early. That'd take an 8-1 down to a 8-5 by first flash easily.

[JJP]

First off, you obviously can find exceptions. No, not all early money horses are drugged. Its just one aspect, IMO, of a candidate for juicing. But it is amazing how often the early heavy action horses outrun their expectations.

[Cajungator26]

Ramazutti COULD be a good example of #2 although I've never seen him up close before this past weekend.

[blackthroatedwind]

Personally I find the first post pretty irresponsible.

[hoovesupsideyourhead]

lest we forget..this game is on the up and up....id like to believe that this is a rare thing not the norm..and fyi..nothing says that a enhanced performance it where this would happen if it did..id be more apt to think dulling a fav performance thus makeing the public choice an out of the money runner would be more beneficial...

[JJP]

Nobody is saying this happens every race, or every day. As a bettor there's a few instances where there's five minutes to post and you look at the board and just scratch your head. One horse is getting far more action than it should be. Not the obvious type, with great form, or the horse ridden by the leading rider or sent out by the track's leading trainer, or even the class dropper. And I'm not saying all "live" horses are drugged, either. Just that its a possible red flag.

[Thoroughbred Fan]

Originally Posted by JJP

Nobody is saying this happens every race, or every day. As a bettor there's a few instances where there's five minutes to post and you look at the board and just scratch your head. One horse is getting far more action than it should be. Not the obvious type, with great form, or the horse ridden by the leading rider or sent out by the track's leading trainer, or even the class dropper. And I'm not saying all "live" horses are drugged, either. Just that its a possible red flag.

I don't think anyone here disputes the fact that shady things happen sometimes. I think unless you "know" then you will kill your bankroll and drive yourself crazy trying to figure it out. There are more pressing concerns that you can concretely know, like which jocks to never bet. Why? Becasue they prove time and time again they are terrible. There's the proof...replays.

-TF

[paisjpq]

each and every one of your arguments has huge holes in it...

one person already pointed out that a partnership horse may take extraordinary amounts of unwarrented money...look at any west point runner if you don't believe me.

horses have personalities and attitudes like any other creature...they may be on their toes one day and dull as a post the next...it does not mean that they have been drugged...the only way that there might be any validation for this argument is if you are able to observe said horse on a daily basis to then note a sudden change in behavior...but even that is not going to be reliable because something as small as temperature and humidity changes can have a dramatic effect on a horse.

a sudden change of form often looks suspucious and if coupled with a new barn might be a valid case for drugging...but also could be due to better care...or time off...or the horse rounding into form...etc etc.

A switch to a better jock is more often a lucky break on a triners part than anything else...do you honestly think that a trainer is going to call a top jocks's agent and tell him that he has a 'sure thing' horse for the guy to ride...all but admitting that the horse will be on an illegal substance? please.

I'm not trying to deny that there are unscrupulous trainers and owners in this game but your method for 'uncovering' drugged horse in a race is not what i would call sound logic.

[JJP]

Originally Posted by paisjpq

each and every one of your arguments has huge holes in it...

one person already pointed out that a partnership horse may take extraordinary amounts of unwarrented money...look at any west point runner if you don't believe me.

horses have personalities and attitudes like any other creature...they may be on their toes one day and dull as a post the next...it does not mean that they have been drugged...the only way that there might be any validation for this argument is if you are able to observe said horse on a daily basis to then note a sudden change in behavior...but even that is not going to be reliable because something as small as temperature and humidity changes can have a dramatic effect on a horse.

a sudden change of form often looks suspucious and if coupled with a new barn might be a valid case for drugging...but also could be due to better care...or time off...or the horse rounding into form...etc etc.

A switch to a better jock is more often a lucky break on a triners part than anything else...do you honestly think that a trainer is going to call a top jocks's agent and tell him that he has a 'sure thing' horse for the guy to ride...all but admitting that the horse will be on an illegal substance? please.

I'm not trying to deny that there are unscrupulous trainers and owners in this game but your method for 'uncovering' drugged horse in a race is not what i would call sound logic.

The problem with your argument is you are picking on one point at a time. One of the variables alone isn't enough evidence. But what about when all the variables come into play? Of course its not a guarantee but it could be a red flag. I'm not so sure I agree on your point about the trainers and jock agents. Would the trainer come right out and say they were going to juice? I doubt it, but he probably tells the agent he "really likes so and so", even though the horse's form is only modest.

As bettors, we all love to believe that every race is won by a big overlay when in fact, that isn't the case at all. Live horses win more than their fair share of races.

[JJP]

Originally Posted by hoovesupsideyourhead

lest we forget..this game is on the up and up....id like to believe that this is a rare thing not the norm..and fyi..nothing says that a enhanced performance it where this would happen if it did..id be more apt to think dulling a fav performance thus makeing the public choice an out of the money runner would be more beneficial...

There's many ways to lose a race without being drugged. And yes, I know somebody will bring up the incidents in KY a few years back where some horses breathing was obstructed to make them lose. I do agree with you that its NOT the norm. However, as a handicapper, we can't be naive that it never happens.

[blackthroatedwind]

There's a big difference between being aware of trainers who cheat and the suggestions in the first post in this thread.

[JJP]

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

There's a big difference between being aware of trainers who cheat and the suggestions in the first post in this thread.

First off, what was so irresponsible? I mentioned no names of trainers or horses. I also stated that it was just opinion, and I couldn't prove any horse was drugged. Its a reality in racing, like it or not, at least some of the time. As handicappers, we have to factor it in.

[Scav]

Originally Posted by Cajungator26

Ramazutti COULD be a good example of #2 although I've never seen him up close before this past weekend.

Um, check your PP's honey, he is always on the lead, in fact, almost won a graded stakes at Gulfstream last year gate to wire at like 40/1

[Cajungator26]

Originally Posted by Scav

Um, check your PP's honey, he is always on the lead, in fact, almost won a graded stakes at Gulfstream last year gate to wire at like 40/1

He looked really good in the paddock, Tom. I haven't seen him before, so I wasn't sure if that was typical for him or not (coat really shiny, dancing on his toes.) He hasn't won a race since '05 and he didn't run on top of the pace the whole time on Sunday.