Tips/Thoughts on Breeders' Cup tickets this year?

[ELA]

Originally Posted by The Bid

Eric,

Its just impossible to say who will, or will not run on that surface. Gamblers at least know Casino Drive can run over it. I would not be shocked with any horses winning on Breders cup day. Unless a horse has raced over that garbage the public will have no idea what to expect

I will not be making one single bet and thats unfortunate.

That's a very good point and I think that certainly will have a lot to do with it. However, I don't know the exact #'s, but I said what I said knowing that some # of horses will have a "home field advantage" so to speak. I wouldn't be shocked if Casino Drive won -- again with an extreme anomaly, field falling apart, etc. However, if several of the key contenders (and that might remain to seen until they load) show up and run their race, I don't see him there. Could I see using him on a super ticket? Yeah, maybe, if others don't warrant the play. I just think it's more possible than probable, and not very.

Eric

[10 pnt move up]

Originally Posted by ELA

That's a very good point and I think that certainly will have a lot to do with it. However, I don't know the exact #'s, but I said what I said knowing that some # of horses will have a "home field advantage" so to speak. I wouldn't be shocked if Casino Drive won -- again with an extreme anomaly, field falling apart, etc. However, if several of the key contenders (and that might remain to seen until they load) show up and run their race, I don't see him there. Could I see using him on a super ticket? Yeah, maybe, if others don't warrant the play. I just think it's more possible than probable, and not very.

Eric

Horses lose alot more due to their style rather then if they handle the track. Its a nice talking point though.

[the_fat_man]

I see we're still FIXATED on the DIRT superior to POLY position.

Yet, while handicapping OSA presently, I can't help noticing how so many horses are able to go from the poly at DMR to the dirt of FPX and then the poly of OSA. And quite a few of them are adept on the turf as well. These must be extremely unique animals.

Seems to me that (DIRT) handicappers have more trouble with poly than horses do.

When I play different tracks I need to make adjustments; changes in surface or otherwise.

[The Bid]

You guys are right, since when does the surface make any difference.