Curlin to be m/l fav

[Java Gold]

Originally Posted by zippyneedsawin

I think the derby angles are a nice tool to consider for the Derby.. including the three preps angle.. but, to me, Barbaro broke more than the RAN curse last year.. His first prep of the year was the Tropical Derby on JANUARY 1st.. then the Holy Bull on February 4th.. then the Florida Derby on April 1st... so from January 2nd to KY Derby day, he had TWO preps.. (13 weeks leading up to the race.) --yes, I know technically he ran 3x in 2006 before the derby(but would you have tossed him had the Tropical Derby been Dec. 31st, instead of jan 1??)
As far as 'hitting a brick wall' in the final 8th, Barbaro could have easily faced that some concern as you are putting on SS and CQ... IMO.
So, I agree getting 3 preps is a big positive for a contender, but not essential under the right circumstances.
though, again, I think the angles are a useful tool in general.

I would have tossed Barbaro based on two preps if that was indeed what occurred prior to the derby. It did not. He still ran 3 preps in 06. If history is any indicator of past success in the Derby it is essential to have the 3 preps. Not to say it will not change in the coming years...but for now it is a proven theory of foundation building to win the Derby.

I posted earlier and I will repeat it...ask Bob Baffert what he felt Point Given was lacking after not winning the Derby? A third prep race! He did not have the foundation with only two preps. Hit the brick wall down the stretch did he not? Foundation Foundation Foundation...chant it with me now!!!

Went on after the Derby (3rd prep we will call it) and destroyed all competition. We should have easily witnessed a Triple crown winner but we did not. Do what you want come May 5th..but it will be an interesting thread when the race is complete to look back at figure who is right and who is wrong on historical trends of Derby winners.

Java OUT

[SniperSB23]

Originally Posted by Java Gold

I would have tossed Barbaro based on two preps if that was indeed what occurred prior to the derby. It did not. He still ran 3 preps in 06. If history is any indicator of past success in the Derby it is essential to have the 3 preps. Not to say it will not change in the coming years...but for now it is a proven theory of foundation building to win the Derby.

I posted earlier and I will repeat it...ask Bob Baffert what he felt Point Given was lacking after not winning the Derby? A third prep race! He did not have the foundation with only two preps. Hit the brick wall down the stretch did he not? Foundation Foundation Foundation...chant it with me now!!!

Went on after the Derby (3rd prep we will call it) and destroyed all competition. We should have easily witnessed a Triple crown winner but we did not. Do what you want come May 5th..but it will be an interesting thread when the race is complete to look back at figure who is right and who is wrong on historical trends of Derby winners.

Java OUT

If Barbaro ran on December 31st instead of January 1st would you have tossed him?

[avance2000]

Originally Posted by SniperSB23

If Barbaro ran on December 31st instead of January 1st would you have tossed him?

oh yeah.....for sure. he would have only had two starts at 3 in that case, which means he would have no foundation at all. if that race had been on the 31st barbaro would have completely fallen apart in the last eigth and finished 12th.
also, horses that win the derby have rarely run on december 31st. it is known as the "new year's eve curse." why do you think matz waited until the first to run him. he is a clever bugger that matz.

[zippyneedsawin]

Originally Posted by Java Gold

I would have tossed Barbaro based on two preps if that was indeed what occurred prior to the derby. It did not. He still ran 3 preps in 06. If history is any indicator of past success in the Derby it is essential to have the 3 preps. Not to say it will not change in the coming years...but for now it is a proven theory of foundation building to win the Derby.

I posted earlier and I will repeat it...ask Bob Baffert what he felt Point Given was lacking after not winning the Derby? A third prep race! He did not have the foundation with only two preps. Hit the brick wall down the stretch did he not? Foundation Foundation Foundation...chant it with me now!!!

Went on after the Derby (3rd prep we will call it) and destroyed all competition. We should have easily witnessed a Triple crown winner but we did not. Do what you want come May 5th..but it will be an interesting thread when the race is complete to look back at figure who is right and who is wrong on historical trends of Derby winners.

Java OUT

really? I may be mistaken, but I thought Baffert said he wouldn't have changed PG's training leading up to the derby. I'm not disagreeing with the idea that 3 preps is a good idea, I just don't think a horse should be completely tossed based on it.

[Java Gold]

Originally Posted by zippyneedsawin

really? I may be mistaken, but I thought Baffert said he wouldn't have changed PG's training leading up to the derby. I'm not disagreeing with the idea that 3 preps is a good idea, I just don't think a horse should be completely tossed based on it.

Zippy...instead of exchanging jabs with each other lets just work on our picks. You have your thoughts..I have my trends/angles. May you do well on Derby day...

Java OUT

PS: Really don't think Baffert was content losing the derby with PG do you? The fact remains he was short on Derby day. I contend he would have blown the field away if he was tighter.