Breeders Cup Handicapping Thoughts.

[Calzone Lord]

Filly and Mare Turf:

I believe the post draw is very important on the turf at Churchill. I've seen the data going back 20-years and a wide draw hurts a lot more on this turf course than most others ... nevermind what happened last year when the course was slick and some Euro's complained about it. 20-years of data trumps one weekend worth.

I believe Misty For Me (10/1 on the ML) is clearly the best horse in this race. She's also the type of horse who improves coming to America from Europe. Her drawing post 12 in an absolute buzzkill in a 3-turn race, with a short run to the first turn, over this particular course.

Nahrain and Announce are the two Euro's who are taking all the support in Europe and will get bet here. Based on how I evalute Euro races -- they are exiting a dogsh!t race. It was a very slow G1 race IMO relative to course speed.

Also -- take a quick look at Nahrain's form. She makes her career debut just 5.5 months ago and goes off at 5/1 -- wins by just over a length over a horse who is still a maiden today. She's odds-on in non-Graded events 2nd and 3rd out -- wins both. She was only 3/1 in the De La Opera -- and she won it in a slow time of 2:02 3/5 (the Arc was run in course record time that day)

The two adopted-American horses Stacelita and Dubawai Heights both won the draw getting the rail and the 2 slot.

The draw made this a very annoying race and I'm probably just going to spread here (only eliminating the 10 and 11) and hope for Chaos like last years edition when Shared Account saved all the ground and won at 47/1.



Ladies Classic:

Plum Pretty's 108 Beyer stands out like a sore thumb -- but it was earned over a VERY speed favoring racetrack that was initally labeled "good" -- was changed to "wet fast" and finally just "fast" by the middle of the card.

Virtually everything that led after a half mile won that day -- the lone exception being Flor De Amelia in the 8th race -- who failed to cash in on a loose lead and finished 2nd. She was 6th at 4-to-5 odds next time out.

The horse who stalked Plum Pretty at Philly was soundly defeated as a 4-to-5 favorite in a stakes race at Belmont as well.

It's Tricky is a very nice horse -- but she flopped the only two times she left the NYRA circuit.

I like Royal Delta to win this. Will be using Pacattack and Ask The Moon with her.



Marathon:

Giant Oak ran a very poor race at Hawthorne last time out. Sure, he was wide, but I felt that was a dead-rail day and he was on the best part of the track. Note how many horses who raced on the rail at HAW that day have improved greatly next out.

A. U. Minor should get Borel on the board. He made up a ton of ground in the final furlong of the Jockey Club Gold Cup -- he will get pace here.



Juvie Turf:


A couple of pretty strong contenders got hurt by the draw --- something tells me I won't be getting the 15-to-1 morning line on Furrajj. He looks like the best chance of the Euro's to me.

Note that Caspar Netcher was defeated twice (both times as a favorite) in his only two attempts at racing around a turn. Certainly his best races have all come over straight-away courses.


Sprint:


Apriority (30-to-1 on the ML) is 7-4-3-0 lifetime on fast dirt --- he's 8-0-3-0 lifetime on every other kind of surface.

He was a monster in Florida but has travelled all year and played plenty of road games... going to Santa Anita, Churchill, Aqu, Saratoga, and Belmont. I think he projects a perfect stalking trip with Rosario and hopefully he will recapture his best form with a good trip over a fast track. That 113 Beyer race from winter wins this.

Jackson Bend becomes the horse if the track is wet. I love his breeding for off-track and he ran huge last time out.

Not a fan of cutting back to 6fs off such an extremely slow paced mile race -- generally speaking, big cutbacks have a lot more success off of faster paced longer races. His Churchill Downs form is also a worry. He ran perhaps the two worst races of his life over CD.



Turf Sprint:

Perfect Officer wants 5 furlongs and he's drawn well in sharp form. I'll take that 12-to-1 ML on what -- to me -- looks like the most likely winner in this miserable race.



More later.