Two at Toga - 2021 edition

[moses]

Well, nearly 30 posts in, here is what you've all been waiting for.

Wednesday, July 21

Best Bet: Race 6 - #1 G Money Liv, 6/1 ML (Moquett/Saez). I'm not really in love with any horses on this card. The #2, #6, #9, and #10 in this race all have starts under their belts and ran decently enough so I'm expecting that they'll each take a decent amount of money. This horse has exhibited some speed in workouts and had a solid 5 furlong workout from the gate 9 days ago, signaling to me that she is ready to race. With Saez aboard, I expect an aggressive ride and most of the horses with experience have started slow or had trouble out of the gate...so I'm looking for this one to grab the lead and never look back.

Best Value: Race 7 - #5 Amistad, 12/1 ML (C. Englehart/Lezcano). I’m assuming this one stays on the turf but may have to audible if it’s taken off. This one may be a stretch as the #7 Absam, #9 Prefect, #12 Gimme Some Mo, and a few others look stronger than Amistad. And Englehart is hitting at a pretty weak 7% in his last 94 turf starts. It may be foolish to expect the Ortiz brothers to get into a pace duel, but I do expect the pace to be quick enough to set up for one of the horses running late. The #5 Amistad had trouble near the top of the stretch last time out (enough for the winner to be DQ'ed) but still finished OK and showed some closing kick two back. He also flashed some turf talent in his maiden win going wide throughout and finishing strong. So I'll hope for the right pace setup and hope that he’s good enough to compete with these.