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Old 06-11-2019, 03:30 PM
Rupert Pupkin Rupert Pupkin is offline
Del Mar
 
Join Date: Jun 2006
Posts: 5,102
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Dahoss View Post
You admitted you haven’t watched every race over the three days...so why would I waste my time giving you examples of something you don’t believe in because as you admit, spotting a rail bias is too difficult for you to see?

Nitrous was on the inside for much of the first 4 furlongs. I gave you an example of a race that perfectly shows the rail bias, you ignored it. H Man on Friday. He spent the whole race on the rail and runner up (dead closer) was glued to the rail until very late when he was going by the chasers. How many more should I give you? Will you at least watch all the races first? Seems only fair to actually watch the races before declaring something, no?

A closer won the Belmont. He was glued to rail. The pacesetter who spent the entire race on the rail was 3rd.

As for suicide fractions, they went 43 and change in the longer Acorn. The Woody Stephens fractions weren’t that fast.
I just watched the H Man race. I actually bet that race. My horse ran up the track. I bet $100 to win on Empire Line and $50 to place on him. I was looking for a price and I thought he was an overlay. I thought that H Man was probably the horse to beat. So I saved with a little $10 exacta with him on top and Empire Line on the bottom. I lost $160 on the race. But I still ended up having a good day.

With regards to the horse (Sicilia Mike) who finished 2nd to H Man, how could you point to him as proof or a rail bias? Watch the head on. Sicilia Mike was about 4 wide practically the whole race. He got down to the 2 path for a little over a quarter of a mile. The jockey actually did do a good job with him. That horse could have easily been much wider. The jock saved as much ground as he could (considering the post) and it made the difference of him getting second place. The good ride definitely was what got him 2nd place, but not because of a rail bias, but because he would have lost a lot of ground had he gone any wider.

And like I said before, Sicilia Mike was only on the inside of the track for maybe a quarter of a mile in a 6 1/2 furlong race. He was in about the 4 path for at least 65-70% of the race. A horse who was 4 wide for over 2/3rds of the race, does not make a good argument for a rail bias. If you don't believe me, watch the head-on and you will see that he was in the 4 path or even further out for most of the race. It was from just past the 3/8th pole to just past the 1/8th pole that he was inside.
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