I sometimes shy away from those short fields with short priced favorites, but they often turn out different than we anticipate. Have certainly seen that stumble thing happen a lot. Funny thing is, it's usually Improbable that has all the difficulty getting out of the gate.
As for Vexatious, can't say I was any wiser than anybody else, but she had some good, though not winning races against some pretty good horses. She was second in her last race, I think, to Monomoy Girl and I noticed she also had a decent race again Blue Prize, the mare that beat Midnight Bisou in the Breeder's Cup last year, so I guess the talent was there.
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