Quote:
Originally Posted by Kasept
What can be gleaned from the exercise with 479 out of 480 hopeless looking horses losing? There must be common denominators... a tick list that eliminates longshots with no chance whatsoever from those with a shot...
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Thanks Steve.
Like with anything else in wagering and investment -- it boils down to value.
You never know what price a horse will go off at until betting has closed in pari-mutual wagering. In betting exchanges it is much more simple, because you're locked in at your price when you bet on or bet against a horse.
Amazingly, some of these horses went off at relatively insanely low odds. The lowest went off at 5.4-to-1 odds -- but I think two or three others also went off at single digits. Quite a few of them went off at odds in the 11-to-1 to 20-to-1 odds range.
An interesting challenge would be one called 'pick 480 horses who look like longshots and are competitive'
Based on the two studies I did in this Contest folder -- my standout of the day won at 87.5% and my Bum List horses won at 0.21%
From now on, when I make a value line for a race I intend to bet, if a horse looks like a major standout I will assign it no higher than an 88% chance of winning. If it looks like a Bum -- I will assign it a 0.20% chance.
As always -- the odds you can get will dictate your decision.