Quote:
Originally Posted by slotdirt
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Here's the flaw in Beyer's argument about the slow Derby time and not many other horses being able to close on Bodemeister and the hot pace he set-
NOBODY WAS CLOSING THAT DAY.
I got slaughtered on the undercard, because I was picking stalkers and closers all day. I was an idiot for not adjusting to the speed bias. Speed horses were holding leads most of the day, and the only horses that were able to close were making aggressive early moves on the backstretch, not in the stretch.
And a lot of those horses that were on the pace and holding were setting fast early fractions. Not sure if Churchill is normally like that, but that's seriously how things went that day. Even horses that were right off the lead weren't able to close for the most part.
So I think the jury is still out on this 3 year old crop. Bode ran a monster race. He looks to be the best 3-year old, and I think if they let him race throughout the year he could still improve by leaps and bounds (which is scary).
But I'm not taking anything away from I'll Have Another. If he gets a competitive 2nd or 3rd to Bode in the Preakness, he's a legit horse. We all saw how bad the 3-year old crop was last year, and how weak that older group was that Tizway beat up on and what made it to the BC Classic last year. I'm hoping a lot of these top 3 year olds continue to run throughout the year and replenish the Classic division later in the year.
In a nutshell, I'm not saying Beyer is wrong, but there are things that happened at Churchill all Derby Day that can make you argue against what he's saying. Let's see what happens in the next 2 TC races, and let's hope Zayat decides to not retire Bode after the Preakness lol. I'm reserving judgement until after the Belmont.