I'm going to add a few more thoughts about some horses here. This is really to help me find clarity but feel free to weigh in.
Epicenter
Maybe it's my naturally contrarian nature but I am questioning this horse. When I watched his most recent wins in real time, I was impressed. But I look back at the Louisiana Derby now and wonder how good the competition was. Granted, he handled both Smile Happy and Zandon in the Risen Star but both of those horses may have needed a race as they were both coming off of layoffs. The Louisiana Derby top rivals were Zozos (out of Munnings/Papa's Forest) who doesn't seem particularly well bred for distance and Pioneer of Medina, who feels like Pletcher's clear 3rd best horse of this group.
Epicenter just feels like a horse that you don't want to use at short odds.
Smile Happy / Zandon
I'm going to include these two together because I don't think there is that much that separates them and my thought process for both of them is the same. I feel they are both ready to run huge races. Obviously that's no surprise with Zandon but I'd be shocked if Smile Happy ends up near 20/1. I think his Blue Grass performance was way better than he's been given credit for.
Taiba / Messier
I technically have both of these horses in one of my futures "Field" bets. They're both super talented. I strongly prefer Messier to Taiba and will probably toss Taiba from all of my wagers as there are just too many red flags for me. Messier is my top choice still. I don't see that changing.
Simplification / White Abarrio / Charge it
I may use all three of these horses in my exotic wagers. Maybe I'm a fool but the Florida Derby / Holy Bull winner is probably my least favorite of these three. I just feel like he got ideal setups in both of those races whereas Simplification had trouble at the start in the Holy Bull and learned in the Florida Derby that perhaps being on the lead isn't his best running style. Charge It, for what it's worth, looks to be a very talented horse and I'm banking on him putting things together and peaking at the right time.
Mo Donegal
He sort of goes hand-in-hand with the above three since he ran in the Holy Bull against two of them. There is some skepticism about the Wood Memorial runners but I really just think that Early Voting was a bit underrated for a while but I feel that race will hold together as time goes on. I don't really love the post position or Mo Donegal's running style but I'm going to use him underneath.
And then I'll probably throw some other horses that intrigue me in -- Tawny Port, Crown Pride, maybe...gasp...Cyberknife.
I should add, this is all in anticipation of making a trifecta bet, which is my preferred single race bet for the Derby.
So it'll probably look something like:
Messier, Zandon, Smile Happy keyed over Messier, Zandon, Smile Happy, Simplification, Charge It, Mo Donegal, Tawny Port, Cyberknife.
Anyway, just my thoughts. If history is any indication, bet Epicenter and Taiba.
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