Quote:
Originally Posted by ateamstupid
El Areeb seems far and away the best value at 20-1. Whether or not you particularly like him in the Derby (I personally think he's legit), the 3YO competition in New York is such that two more blowout wins in the Gotham and the Wood are a reasonable possibility. If that happens, he'll be 6-1 tops in the Derby.
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First of all, he likely be higher than 6:1, but even if he is, if he's 1:2 in the Gotham and even money in the Wood ( unlikely but I'll give it to you ), he's less than 5% to win the Derby.....or 20:1. An awful lot of "ifs" to get there.
I get it, they're all bad value, but his is not special. My guess is he's about 25% at best to win both the Gotham and Wood, and then about 12:1 in the Derby...which makes him about 50:1 to win the Derby....and that's in a best case scenario.