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Originally Posted by pointman
Horses can make big jumps for a variety of reasons. IWR's jump is much more logical and can be explained by the surface change from synthetics to what is his obviously preferred surface, dirt. There are many that believe that the Beyer's are always lower than they should be on synthetics (I believe that Beyer has recently stated that he is even going to try to adjust this) which can explain part of IWR's jump. However, since IWR's breeding was for dirt, his jump was not only logical, but led many, like myself, to believe that it was for real and not just a freak race. This was validated when he put up a big number in the Wood while in hand despite his nightmare trip.
MTB's jump is hard to explain. You often see a lightly raced horse make a big jump or a horse that makes a big jump from 2 to 3 years old, but what makes MTR's jump confusing is that he did have enough races and a Beyer pattern that would not lead one to believe that he could make such a huge jump at this point in time.
The real question to ask is whether you believe that MTB's jump was real and whether he can sustain it in the Preakness/Belmont. Many horses regress after such a big jump, many never even come close to approaching such a figure again, and I have to believe that MTB did not suddenly become the top three year old overnight and will run nowhere close the race he did on Saturday. There are others such as TFM that believe the Beyers are complete garbage.
I believe that MTB will be a huge underlay in the Preakness even at 8-1 or 10-1 relative to his actual chances of producing a winning performance which will create overlays. The problem that I have is that the rest of the field ran so badly, it is hard to make a case as to the horse that should crush whoever enters that race.
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This is along the lines of what I was looking for. I had heard all the discussion about IWR's jump (breeding for dirt imparticular) that made his improvment in the Gotham logical.
Would it be incorrect to assume that MTB would produce a comparible performance the next time he hits the slop? Of course I realize that pace, trip, etc. would play a factor, but just from a raw handicapping standpoint, you would have to take a hard look at him?
Once again, I'm not doing this to try to say "MTB is a Triple Crown horse if the track turns up sloppy the next 2 races", but instead to look at using this angle for other races and other horses.