Quote:
Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind
You're defending an indefensibly bad opinion.
He came from last behind a very slow pace to run an excellent second in the Champagne. Given how close he was to the pace, and how wide he was, there is a very good argument that he ran the best race of anyone in the BC Juvenile ( I know TimeformUS thinks it's close ). He buried the field in the Holy Bull, and won the Fountain of Youth impressively despite being too close to a pace that collapsed. He was once again taken out of his best game ( which is closing since you seem to know VERY little about this horse ) when an excellent 2nd in the Florida Derby. He has run well at every track, under all conditions, from sprints to routes, in every start before being eased in the KY Derby ( when something clearly went amiss ). Your opinion of him is in NO way backed up by his on-track performances yet you have the audacity to call someone else biased when judging him.
That takes balls....I'll give you that.
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I speak my mind, and you, as a fairly well known public handicapper, should appreciate that going against the grain can be rewarding, and that often public opinion is wrong.
The three of you seem to think I'm saying Upstart sucks, while in fact, I think the horse is pretty good, but doesn't deserve the accolades that some of us have attributed to him.
I believe that people are overestimating each of these great starts that you cite.
In the Champagne, looking at his past performances, he was third one length back of a 46.1 opening half mile. That is hardly coming from out of the clouds, and that really isn't what I'd call a very slow pace. Yeah yeah, it's a one turn race, but wasn't that day on the slowish side (my memory of that is admittedly foggy).
How has the winner of the Champagne done since then?
The third place runner? He is one for eleven lifetime. That field was not very impressive, especially stacked up to some of the other two year old races.
I'll disagree with you on his BCJ performance. For God's sake, he got nosed out by a supremely overrated horse in Carpe Diem (the previous most overrated horse in the crop).
Go ahead and stick to your claim that there is a good argument to him being best in the BCJ, and I'll stick to my claim that he got trounced by the, at the time, likely third best juvie in California. Yeah, the pace was wicked and setup for the winner, I'll give you that, but to me that was not a super impressive performance.
His Holy Bull was real good, but I see that race as pretty shallow, except for the runnerup, who I think is now significantly better than he was in January.
The FOY, he ran another honest solid race, but buried a bunch of pretty unimpressive horses. He was 4/5 and won like he was supposed to.
Now to the Florida Derby. He gets beaten by a third time starter and again runs another strong solid race.
However, maybe it is you who doesn't know the horse. You say he's a closer, which he is to a degree, but pretty much every start he's forwardly placed, near the lead.
Here are his approximate positions in each start, at around the half mile.
MSW 5th by 2
Y bred stakes, 2nd by 4
Champagne 3rd by 1 in 46.1
BCJ 5th by 1.75 in 45.3
Holy Bull 2nd by a head in 48.4 over an unusually slow (historically speaking) track.
FOY 3rd by 2.5 47.4 again over a weird GP surface.
Florida Derby 3rd by 1 in 48.1 at GP again.
His Kentucky Derby is the first route in which he was even five lengths back, so I'm not sure I am the one who doesn't know this horse.
From my perspective, you have done a poor job of reading this horse. Do I think less of you for that (or the other two Upstart fan boys here), not in the least.
Maybe I could have worded my thoughts a little better, for as all I can see, I am being criticized over semantics.