Quote:
|
Originally Posted by the_fat_man
Sounds like this was a mystery that only the racing intelligencia could possibly be aware of. On the other hand, it could also be the case that the horse's trip in the FoY was obvious to even the uninitiated. Stranger things have happened.
And, then again, it could also be the case that IB got lucky with the absolutely perfect setup in the FD. Not like it's the 1st time that Zito has stepped in a stall full of ****. His ass must be even bigger than mine.
The mysterious made simple by the Fat Man.
|
Ice Box's poor trip in the FoY was the product of making a visually eye catching 5-wide move on the far turn in a race shape that featured a slow pace and very fast come home time.
He was the one horse you would point to from the FoY as running the best race in relation to how his naked running line would look on paper.
In other words, he ran much better than his 86 Beyer indicated. How much better?
Assuming he was capable of running 5 lengths better with a more reasonable pace in front of him and not having to go so wide the entire way around the far turn .. those 5 lengths would inflate his number all the way to a 94.
A 94 wins most 2nd level alw races at Belmont and makes you very competitive for underneath slots in weaker Derby Prep exotics .. it does not however win you the Fla Derby (unless your name is Bullintheheather)