One thing that we have to consider these days is whether the horse was bred to mature early and excel at 2 or not. Such horses will look really good at 2 but will get no better at 3, sort of like Arazi, the poster child of this sort. Meanwhile others of the crop will have improved with maturity from 2 to 3, catch up and surpass the juvenile hotshots.
The clearest example of this currently is Beethoven. He is by a stallion who reached his peak at 2 out of a mare who reached her peak at 2. I didn't expect him to go on at 3, based on what he was bred to be, and he hasn't.
Now when you get a horse who isn't bred to be an early maturing sort and STILL beats them all at 2, like Hoist the Flag, then you know you have a real racehorse.
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