Quote:
Originally Posted by moses
National Treasure feels to me like Medina Spirit a bit. A horse who ran well while playing second fiddle to Baffert’s top horse (Cave Rock) as a two year old. He has disappointed so far this year. I think some of the problems you lay out in that last paragraph (losing position when real running starts, lack of punch in the stretch) are due to a delayed lead switch when he hits the stretch. He has lost position in his last two starts then gained some of it back once he switched leads. (In fairness, maybe this isn’t the type of horse you want to lean on too heavily.)
|
I can't really comment much on the lead switch issue; the only race I saw him distinctly late switching was in the BC (though Cave Rock was even worse & was lugging in...not shockingly went on the sidelines afterwards); the Sham replay unfortunately is edited due to an injured horse so I don't know what he did there.
At any rate, if the lead switch is a real issue, it is often tied to soundness issues & one way or another should be seen as a negative. Have to have faith that he will correct it & even then it won't mean that his form will improve necessarily. Another strike I have against the horse is his pedigree. Quality Road is quickly becoming an overrated stallion. People pay big money for his offspring, even overseas conglomerates, but he hasn't delivered with anything that developed into a true classic horse outside of Abel Tasman. Mostly good 2yos that fall apart.
Another horse with lead switch issues is Red Route One. He tends to switch properly but then often lugs in mid stretch and swaps back to his left. Probably kept him from finishing closer in both the Southwest & the Rebel. They added blinkers for his last 2 & he seems to run straight through the stretch now though his closing kick appears to have been blunted. I thought he would improve over the spring but he seems to have stagnated. Still, he has some favorable form with many of the other Derby trail detritus & his 2 biggest efforts came on off tracks (I believe I read there was going to be some weather on Preakness day). I don't think he's outright pace dependent, he just loses contact no matter what & then goes all in on the far turn. Probably the least likely of the pretenders to be an underlay. Might move up with an off track.