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Originally Posted by Travis Stone
The Derby Trail is fun because you can over-analyze stuff and have an excuse for doing so. After today's results, there are some fairly interesting considerations:
* Papa Clem, who had a pretty good trip in the La. Derby, was man-handled by Friesan Fire. Papa Clem comes back to win today, what does that say about Friesan Fire?
* General Quarters beat Musket Man, Musket Man comes back to win the Illinois Derby, while General Quarters beats synthetic horses on their own turf. Is the West Florida contingent this good?
* Papa Clem is an okay horse on both surfaces, yet he lost to Pioneerof The Nile. Love POTN or hate him, you have to have a few ounces of respect for him.
* Terrain will likely finish 3rd or 4th in the Kentucky Derby, because it's what he does.
* Who is the pace in the Kentucky Derby now?
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One at a time.....
Maybe Papa Clem hated the mud....and more it says that the Arkansas Derby field sucked ( Old Fashioned is OK but severly distance challenged ).
General Quarters had a lousy trip in the Tampa Bay Derby, beat crows today, and probably improved on the fake turf.
Pioneer of the Nile is a turf/synthetic horse who barely beat dirt horses on a surface they didn't particularly care for....but will drown him on their preferred surface ( and his least favorite surface ) in a few weeks.
Terrain is a complete mediocrity who can't even make a dent in a race that fell in his lap on his preferred surface.
I supposed Old Fashioned is the main speed, unless his connections are smart enough to skip the Derby and run in the Met Mile, and that will have little affect on the race. But, without seeing all the pps this is a tougher one to answer.