[ateamstupid]

Total Invested: $600
Total Returned: $776.85
Net: +$176.85
$2 ROI: $2.59

Friday, July 26

Really fascinating card today. One deep, competitive race after another and both Pick 4 sequences look like they'll pay well, but I'll stick with the early one, as it looks slightly easier to handle.

2nd: Tough race where cases can be made for almost anyone. #10 I Jus Wana Hav Fun looks like the speed of the speed and the horse to beat from the outside and takes a big drop in class for Scherer after dueling with stakes-bound Uno Duo in her last start. If she can run back to her most recent FG races, she'll win. She's my A. #9 Tanglewood Tale chased two sharp speedballs in her last two in Classic Point and Sing Dixie Sing and can win with her good race. #6 Seven Dreams is a consistent filly who shows up with her race no matter what barn she's in and is fast enough to win. #5 Revealing Moment isn't good enough on paper, but is lightly-raced and in her only start with Lasix, she ran up against Princess of Sylmar over the AQU inner. They're my B's. My C's will be #1 Voodoo Tales and #4 Group Therapy, both of whom stepped forward in their maiden-breakers last time out, but must improve again to win this.

3rd: I was extremely impressed with the race #1 Brabbham ran last out, doing all the dirty work on a fast pace and just kept going, narrowly getting run down by two perfect-trip closers late. He's been given time to recover from that big effort and is working well; the horse to beat. #5 Sliver and Onions ran well in his last, was the last survivor of the pace battle and beaten late by a very promising Michelle Nevin firster. #2 King of Broadway took a lot of money in his debut on Derby day at CD, broke poorly, came with a decent close and figures to improve for Mott with more distance. He's 12-for-41 with a $2.23 ROI with 2nd time out dirt maidens going sprint-to-route. #6 Howie's Tiz was a very good 2nd to Curlin entrant Bad Hombre two back, then caught a speed-favoring track last time out. He's a full to Rush Now, who was much better going longer and I've been a fan of this horse since his debut late-running 3rd to Honorable Dillon last summer.

4th: #1A Read the Research is clearly the horse to beat after attending a fast pace going longer in a NY-bred stake last out. Simply put, if she runs back to her last race, she's going to win. I'll use her with one B and one C. If Castellano doesn't hard-send, #2 Currency Union could be the beneficiary with a switch to a higher % and much more aggressive rider. Her last two efforts aren't good enough, but hopefully she's rounding back to that 5/3 race, which would give her a shot against the favorite. #3 Nothing But Air beat pretty much nothing but air in her debut, but exploded away in the stretch and appears to be working well for her return. The issues are obviously the much stiffer competition and the layoff, as well as closing into what figures to be a moderate pace.

5th: #1 The Lady Says Yes is a must bet-against in here, who's now lost three times as the favorite and another at 5-2 and had absolutely no excuse in her return race. Her connections are sure to make her overbet and if she wins, that's fine, but she's a horse you're supposed to play against. The other major factor in this race is the absurdly high figures the horses coming out of that 7/7 BEL race have gotten:

Runner - Finish - Beaten Lengths - Previous Top BSF - 7/7 BSF - Subsequent BSF (if applicable)
Golden Cheetah 1st -- 53 - 77
Chrissy Girl 2nd neck 63 - 76
Eddy's Time 3rd 3/4 58 - 75
Raven Rise 4th 1 54 - 75
You So Smart 5th 1 3/4 29 - 73
Transplendid 6th 2 1/4 62 - 72 - 47
Love Is Key Kaz 7th 3 1/4 58 - 70
Life's a Stage 8th 3 1/2 58 - 69
Familyofroses 9th 4 1/2 65 - 67
Ampa's Girl 10th 6 1/2 60 - 63
See See See 11th 13 42 - 48

If you believe the Beyers, every single horse ran a new top in that race and the first eight horses all ran 11+ points better than they ever have before. I'll be docking 10 points from every horse who comes out of that race, which you could argue might be a little conservative.

I'm interested in #8 Sakonnet Point, who Jonathan Sheppard was likely just getting a race into 1st out at DEL. He saw fit to ship her to NY to run against statebreds, she returns with his customary five-furlong turf breeze and picks up Rosie, who has tremendous numbers when riding for this barn. The others I want are #3 Sophie's Turn, who took a lot of money for Serpe 1st out and made a decent close after a poor start and #4 Coriander, who needs to take a small step forward but is eligible to do so 2nd off the bench in a race she can potentially control up front. I'll use the two from the 7/7 race who had the toughest trips in there. #10 Familyofroses was steadied to last at the break, got stuck behind a slow pace and made a laughably wide move on the far turn before understandably flattening out. She deserves another shot, but the pace may play against her again today. #2 You So Smart was closer to that slow pace, but lost a lot of ground from the 10-hole, got shut off in midstretch and had nowhere to run in the final furlong. She draws better in here and could carve out a good stalking trip in behind Coriander.

$.50 5,6,9,10/1,2,5,6/1,2/2,3,4,8,10 $80
$.50 1,4,10/1,6/1/2,3,4,8 $12
$.50 10/1,6/3/2,3,4,8 $4
$.50 10/1,6/1/1 $1
Race 5 $3 WIN 8