Total Invested: $400
Total Returned: $279
Net: -$121
$2 ROI: $1.40
Wednesday, July 24
Early Pick 4:
2nd: It's tough to get past the lack of speed in here. I'd love to pitch #4 Profetiza completely, because she hasn't run fast enough yet to win this and in her last race she got the benefit of an absurdly easy lead, but she will probably be loose against this field as well, so I have to use. I prefer #2 Montana Native though. She kept good company at Gulfstream and her last at CD was a good building block for the 2nd half of her season. Most importantly, she has the tactical speed to track Profetiza and get first run on the closers. #1 Parc Monceau made the first, wide move in the 5/26 BEL race that totally collapsed while the winner saved all the ground and rallied from further off. Hushion has gotten a chance to know her since and passes on a potential N1X to run her in this stake. Rosario opts for Montana Native, but Velazquez picks up the mount and Parc Monceau also has enough tactical speed not to be too far out of it. I respect #3 Tap Twenty One and #5 Flash Forward and will use them as C's, but I think the pace will work against them.
3rd: This is a tough race, with a lot of ways to go, but the pace in this 9-furlong test should be more taxing than the previous race's, with Belief System and Liberty Wing very likely to show speed and potential early foot coming from blinkered Town Hall and perhaps Beachview Too. #2 Nevada ran his best race since being claimed by Orseno two-back, albeit with a good setup, it's a setup he might get again today. The turf experiment didn't work out, but he's a major contender returning to dirt. #1 Town Hall drops in class off a wide-early-move-and-fade trip against some tough N1X 3YOs last out. He has to be used, but Rosario has to avoid getting sucked up into a speed duel. #3 Bedouin Now's in too good form for me to ignore him. His race two-back fits with these and he's versatile enough to adapt to different pace scenarios. I'll also use #5 Summer Sands, who drops off a layoff and a disappointing effort at PIM, but goes out for the ever-dangerous McLaughlin barn and will likely get a solid pace to run into.
4th: #6 Callana is the horse to beat off back-to-back 2nds against very nice horses Midnight Watch and Zip Up, but this field could have some good ones in it also at some decent prices. #3 Celtic Arch and #8 Industrial Policy are the obvious other horses. Celtic Arch was only beaten a length by Callana with a worse setup in that last race, while Industrial Policy took a while to switch leads in her turf debut but closed strongly once she did. I'm also interested in #5 Samiam for Weaver, who popped at 19-1 with a 2nd-time starter on Monday. Samiam was unnecessarily sent up on a fast pace in her two-turn debut and paid for it in the lane. She's eligible to improve a good deal with a more patient ride this time. #1 Go Baby Go Go jumped forward in her move to turf last summer and put in a big close in a race with a slow pace, running her last 1/4 in :22.63. The obvious issue is she hasn't been seen since (347 days) and Jim Baker is not good off layoffs, but she'll be a big price and could benefit if the pace gets hot between Shortbread Scotty, Forever Road, etc.
5th: I went over my thoughts on this race in the
C/O discussion thread. #1 Work N Flirt is the horse to beat, but I like #7 Lady Halite. She did nothing but attend fast paces at 3, mostly going further. Her turf return race wasn't bad and now Kenneally reaches out to his main man Lezcano for her return to what she's likely supposed to do, sprint on the dirt. I'll also use #4 Mama Zee, who needs to improve some off her debut, but was caught wide in there and faces a slightly softer field today.
$.50 1,
2,4/1,
2,3,5/1,3,
5,6,8/1,
4,7 $90
$.50 2,3,5/1,2/6/1,7 $6
Race 4 $4 WIN
5