Quote:
Originally Posted by knickslions2
Nice work Kitan.
|
Thanks. Let's see if I'm still in the black after this card. A few extra plays as I'm going back to the well with some of these and trying to (hopefully) take advantage of some other good prices...
Race 1:
#12 Corre Rapido is worth a shot here in a relatively weak race. While his two wins have come on the dirt, he has always trialled well down the Sha Tin straight and looked good winning a recent trial.
Race 2:
Almost last chance saloon time for
#14 The Full Bloom. He ran well enough in the opening race of the season but just didn’t have much to give in the last furlong. Smacked his head leaving the gates last time so let’s ignore that. Now third off the layoff and back to 1400m at Sha Tin, his favourite course and distance. Wonder what kind of trip he’ll get from gate 11, but 20-1 overnight price is too enticing.
#3 Super Winner has been in the money in three of his four races over the course and distance and is now into Class 5 for the first time.
#4 Nunchuks put in some decent efforts last season in Class 4 and is another who gets his first chance down in class.
Race 3:
#3 Best For You won twice in this class over the course and distance last year and ran on nicely in a shorter race in his season debut. Doesn’t look like much pace in this race, but he did sit just behind the leaders in one of those wins.
Race 7:
#4 Czarson was run down by a much better horse than what he’s facing here. Will only be about half the odds as he was that day, but still a decent enough price to go with him again.
Race 8:
The first Group race of the season sees the old champ
#1 Beauty Generation taking on budding superstar
#6 Golden Sixty. The latter is the most likely winner, carrying 18lbs lighter given the handicap conditions, but will be odds-on.
The overnight price of around 25-1 on
#7 Fast Most Furious is too good to pass up. I played him at similar odds in a G3 handicap towards the end of last season, and he would have won if he got a clearer run sooner, so he can definitely compete at this level. He has a decent record over this distance and has been in the money in four of five starts when coming off a layoff. I think he’s the key price to use in this race.
Race 10:
A few up-and-coming promising types in here, but that means there’s good prices available on some other proven performers. Specifically,
#2 Mr Croissant has a 12 5-4-1 record over the Sha Tin 1200m, and that includes his last run which you can throw out (missed the start by 5 lengths). He also has a 3 1-2-0 record first off the layoff and comes into this fit---he’s done a lot of work in the mornings and has had two trials.
#11 Tornado Twist is perfect over the course and distance (3 for 3), had a nice prep run over the 1000m, and gets in at 112lbs with the apprentice. Currently over 30-1, which is a big overlay for me.
PLAYS:
R1 WP 12
R2 WP 14
R2 EX BOX 3,4,14
R3 WP 3
R7 WP 4
R8 WP 7
R8 EX BOX 1,6,7
R10 WP 2,11
R10 QUIN 2,11/2,3,10,11,14