Originally Posted by cakes44
What are you going to do though, say that two horses ran out of their minds(plausible), or that basically all of the other 12 ran as poorly as they could have? With this goofy-run race, it really doesn't seem like there can be an in-between.
I am not purporting Beyer is wrong because he isn't. Beyer methodology is rooted in decades of experience he isn't wrong he followed his process and derived a figure that works for him. That said it's his process and his figures can be changed when and if they prove to be misleading. At this point, this is Beyers best interpretation of the race. We will see. Lots of people make figures some for the public others for themselves.
To me, it's not about calling out the guy who made the figure and preaching why it's right or wrong it's about understanding their interpretation of the race and why they used the figure they did. I can disagree with an interpretation; I can't rationally suggest the figure is wrong with a guy who is doing it 50 years and is a legend.