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Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind
I worry about Aidan O'Brien's dismal North American record.
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His last start aside, overall Mogul has been a disappointment relatively speaking. He was highly touted all season and I believe was mentioned as Coolmore's best hope for the classics. They ended up winning both the Epsom and Irish Derbies but not with this horse. Had to drop to Group 3 company to find winning form and then promptly lost as the favorite in the St. Leger prep, getting tagged for 2nd by the horse he had just beat in the Group 3.
Not sure if the betting public will pick up on it, but the horse he beat in the French race (German Derby winner) came back to run a sharp 2nd in the decimated Arc. With the heavy ground and feed contamination scratches, I'm not sure if that's really a point in his favor but it certainly might hinder the price.
Another factor is the jockey. Not sure who Ryan Moore will choose between Mogul off the win or Magical with a slew of career Group 1s (who also has run well previously in the US). I would follow George Costanza and take the opposite of his selection. Maybe it's because he chose to stay in England during the COVID shutdown, but Moore has not been successful this year on Coolmore horses in the major events. Magical is 3 for 5 this year all in Group 1s and all 3 wins were with other riders while both losses were with Moore. He wasn't on any of those Derby winners either.