Quote:
Originally Posted by King Glorious
I have a question. Overall, I agree with you that having an understanding of how figures are made is necessary. But isn't it clear that the scale of today isn't the same as the scale of yesterday? I remember seeing top horses routinely going 115+ and it wasn't unusual to see 120. I look at the Beyer leaderboard for each year and I see some interesting things.
From 1993-2005:
26 different horses reach 120 in dirt races over a mile.
34 performances that were 120+
In 1997 alone, there were 12 performances that got a 121 figure or higher.
From 2006-2018:
5 different horses reached 120 in dirt races over a mile.
6 performances that were 120+
I broke it down a little more. The list shows the leaderboards from 1993-2018 so 26 years. I broke them down to 1993-2005 and 2006-2018 so two 13 years segments. Here's what I found:
It lists the top 27 2yo performances at any distance
1993-2005 has 19
2006-2018 has 8
2010 til now has 4
It lists the top 24 3yo performances at any distance
1993-2005 has 19
2006-2018 has 5
2010 til now has 3
It lists the top 20 sprint performances (8f and under)
1993-2005 has 18
2006-2018 has 2
2010 til now has 1
It lists the top 21 performances on dirt of more than a mile
1993-2005 has 20
2006-2018 has 1
2010 til now has 1
So while I understand that horses like Ghostzapper and Formal Gold and Cigar were special horses, am I to believe that we can't even produce horses like Sky Jack, Concerned Minister, or Stephen Got Even? Like Aptitude, Mariah's Storm, Kiridashi, or Ormsby?
So maybe it's not just needing an understanding of how to make figures but also an understanding of the way the scales have changed and how to fit a figure into a historical context. For example, maybe 110 is the new 120 (not saying it is but just making the point). If you understand that, then a 105 is looked at a little different but if you try to compare numbers from today to numbers of yesterday, it will look like Swiss Skydiver's second fastest Preakness ever is still slower than the top 27 2yo horses ran from 1993-2018.
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you routinely hear Beyer defend the big figs from the past, that said other figure makers seem to disagree that horses are getting slower? I think CJ's figs are higher of course he takes pace into account. I dont follow Jerry Brown but he also seems to digree from Beyer in that horses are slower in 2020 than they were 25 years ago? some suggest the tracks are deeper? How the heck would anyone save a trainer or super know for sure? These are interesting conversations to have, I have no problem challenging Fig orthodoxy, sometimes they break out races, sometimes they make artful assumptions, it ain't perfect or is it meant to be. But the random "I think its a tad light" stuff is comical.