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Originally Posted by jcs11204
what do you mean what percent ? i dont handicap that way... i thought there was TONS OF SPEED ON PAPER.... and i did not like her for the win, i used 1,2,3,9... the 3 ran huge for second at giant odds...
i dont know what % though, i guess if i had to say, i would say there was a 50% chance she could have bombed and ran out of the top 3
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so for you she was a bad bet. You didn't even like her to win.
If you think she will pay $3 and has a 50% chance thats only a 0.75 roi. Meaning if you are right and did that over a million bets, you would lose a quarter for every dollar you bet.
I thought she was easily the best. I thought she had about a 75% chance of finishing top 3. So for my opinion if I was right was an roi of 1.125. So over a million bets if i was right that would be a profit of 12cents per every dollar bet.
We just had different opinions about how good the horse was. If I had the same opinion as you, I definetly wouldn't have bet.
As far as the horse being 6-5, he wasn't getting the same kind of money in the show pool. He ended up paying 4.40 to win and 3.10 to show. Here is what the pools looked like after ALL bets were counted.
