Well, I got to feel smart for about a half-hour yesterday, as I successfully got 14-1 Rapscallion home to start the Pick 4 thanks to a great ride by Alan Garcia. But that was about my only good opinion all day, as Marriedtothemusic quickly busted my ticket in the next leg. At an underlaid 8-1, Marriedtothemusic somehow wasn't pressed by Thinking of Girls or Derby Watch, was allowed a clear lead through :22.59 and :45.19 and improved his BSF 18 points off his top to win in a romp. I didn't like 28-1 5th race winner Happy Fella either. All in all, those are the kind of losses I can live with, where horses I didn't want at all knock me out, as opposed to ones I considered using but left off for one reason or another. Also, I had the right idea (just the wrong horses) in searching for prices around the single of Uno Duo, as even with that 1-2 winner, the sequence paid $11,000+ for $.50. But it was the kind of bizarre day where you might have had one or two good ideas, but it was very tough to string anything together.
We head into Monday with a deficit of just $21, so one good day today will make this a successful opening week. Let's get into it.
Monday, July 22
Late Pick 4:
7th: Whenever there isn't a stickout dropper, these cheap maiden claimers are good races to look for value in. #1 Optionality is going to take a lot of money and while I'll use him defensively, he's got a lot of question marks. He was never anything special to begin with, but the assumption last time out was that the Ramsey/Maker claim at Churchill would turn him around. It didn't, and while he was checked a bit in between horses in midstretch, he had absolutely nothing to offer anyway and the fact that he couldn't even get 3rd in there isn't good. Now he draws the rail and comes to Saratoga, where the connections haven't had the same magic early in the meet. #2 Mr. William drops in for $25,000 after being claimed for $40,000 by Jacobson and switches surfaces. Jacobson is 4-for-7 (with another finishing 2nd by a head) with a $2.91 ROI with horses going turf to dirt 1st off the claim in maiden claimers.
#3 Southern Safari didn't run a step after breaking slowly in his debut, but takes an enormous drop in class and gets a positive rider switch today. Maybe with a more alert break he can surprise at a price. #4 Foggy Road is also taking a big class plunge for the ever-dangerous Dubb/RudyRod connections. #7 Stop Sign is the horse to beat for me, as he figures to be the controlling speed and cuts back to six furlongs, a call at which he had the lead in both of his races. He does go out for a low-percentage barn on just 9 days' rest, but his chances increase even more with the scratch of Fairy Snow. #9 Dapper Draper may also appreciate the cutback. He was bet like he couldn't lose in his debut, showed nothing that day, but stepped forward significantly next time out. #10 Lincoln Flyer is a well-bred 4-year-old 1st-time starter, but his worktab has been steady as can be since 5/14, including seven 5-furlong breezes and a 6-furlong work. Maybe he can't run, but he looks like he'll be ready to go 1st out and wouldn't need to be a monster to factor.
8th: #5 Peace Preserver's last turf race should win this going away. She broke a step slow, got stuck behind a very slow pace, lost ground on the far turn and still outgamed the 3-4 favorite to be a closing 2nd behind a dazzling Hessonite, running her last 5/16 in :28 flat. Her 2nd in the Riskaverse at Saratoga last summer is also better than it looks. I'm hoping that Angel's South gives Fantasy of Flight at least some company up front. #7 Open Water drops in class and switches back to turf, where she was hardly disgraced in several graded stakes tries last summer. Her figure from the Marjorie Everett win makes her competitive with these and perhaps she's better on grass than synthetic.
9th: #2 Awesome Vision, #3 Readthebyline and #5 Groomedforvictory appear to hold the keys to this race. #6 So Scott is a fringe player, but I didn't like his last race and that big 2nd in the Commentator came on 5 days' rest at a time when Jacobson was winning everything.
10th: #8 Starship Gambler is going to take some beating. I'm well aware that she's burned a lot of money lately, especially since I needed her for a four-figure score two-back when she faded late against C P Hath a Way. But she set a ridiculously fast pace last out and was passed by better horses than she's facing today. The 26-1 winner that day validated her 76 BSF by returning to run 3rd with a 77 at Indiana Downs next out and one of the horses that chased Starship Gambler came back to wire a turf claimer at Ellis, improving her BSF 6 points. Her TG figures tower over this group and I have a feeling Rosario will be better able to harness her speed than her last jockey. The only other horse that interests me is #3 Sheerflakesofgold, who ran several competitive races last year against slightly better. She goes out for an underrated trainer in Dave Duggan, who puts up his go-to rider Jose Ortiz. The two are 6-for-16 (9-for-16 ITM) with a $7.06 ROI together. It's a concern she hasn't been seen since 2/18, but note that she ran a good 2nd at 10-1 off a similar layoff opening week at Saratoga last year.
$1.50 1,2,3,4,7,9,10/5,7/2,3,5/8 $63
$.50 1,2,3,4,7,9,10/5,7/2,3,5/3 $21
$1 7/3,4,5,6/2,3,6/8 $12
$1 7/5/6/8 $1
Race 7 $3 WIN 3
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