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Originally Posted by Pedigree Ann
I've been thinking about the Derby and think I now understand how it happened. Consider the following scenario:
A horse who had previously won races running on/near the front end misses the break, stumbles, or is squeezed back, drops several lengths back behind the next-last horse and you think "well, he's toast." Yet lo and behold, same horse finds a new dimension, and comes roaring down the stretch to win, or just miss. No one knew he had it in him, least of all the rider and trainer. Doesn't happen every day, or every month, but we have all seen it happen.
So yesterday it happened in the Kentucky Derby. Not going to happen again in our lifetime, most likely. Especially not without a patented Calvin Bo-Rail unimpeded passage on the best part of the track. The races that Mine That Bird won to be named champion 2yo in Canada were won by being forwardly placed, within a few lengths of the leader. Nobody could have logically predicted that he was capable of that kind of finishing kick from the next county. And although his pedigree hinted that he would move up on mud, he hadn't had the opportunity to display it. A sort of perfect storm of circumstances.
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Yep, the old "get a lemon and make lemonade" scenario.
Someone else posted smartly elsewhere around here that Calvin may not have felt as comfortable to be as personally creative had he been riding a more expensive or favored horse for "more established" connections. I essentially concur.
Taking Mine That Bird back so far would have left lots of room for 2nd guessing on a favored horse had he not been successful.
Regardless, now that 30 hours or so have passed I am confident that Borel's ride in the 2009 Kentucky Derby will be one I'll enjoy watching and thinking about in years to come.