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Originally Posted by ranger5830
I was hoping you would show up in here, as DTs only actual Showvivor winner, I was anxious for your feedback.
Obviously I agree that you have to play favorites in order to get any kind of streak going, as so far I have picked 26 winners and the longest priced one is only $5.20, so it's not like I'm looking for longshots, or even decent priced contenders, to use. I think the longest priced horse so far has been either 7-2 or 4-1, and that was mainly at the beginning when I didn't take it as seriously.
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My comment was limited to the situation you found yourself in when you were making your final pick, about which you wrote:
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Originally Posted by ranger5830
Some of you might be wondering why I didn't take the 2-5 Baffert maiden Wolf Man Rocket that was the obvious pick of the day, if I could find a good alternative to the big favorite I always tried to do so, as if they run out you make big moves on the leaderboard. After all there are at least 24 different correct answers every day.
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If by "good alternative" you meant "just as likely to show", then I agree with your reasoning. But if you meant "almost as likely to show", then I think it was a mistake for someone in the position you were in, namely with a lead.
Quote:
Originally Posted by ranger5830
I went back and looked at the thread where you won, great job btw, and the primary difference between us is how important you view field size to be. To me, if there's a 3-5 shot in a 10 horse field, where half the field is 20-1 or higher and is just going to struggle at the back of the pack anyway, that horse is as likely to come in as a 3-5 shot in a 5 or 6 horse field, where the other contenders are generally more evenly matched, plus the horse in the short field is likely to draw far more picks.
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It may be true that a 3-5 horse in a 5 or 6 horse field has the same chance to win as a 3-5 horse in a 10-horse field, but I would be surprised if it doesn't have a better chance to show. So many more things can go wrong in a 10-horse field. And even if something goes wrong in a 5-horse field, finishing ahead of just 2 other horses is easier than finishing ahead of 7 other horses. I'll admit, though, that I don't have data to support that contention.
Quote:
Originally Posted by ranger5830
I think I have a good shot too, basically need one more "sure thing" horse to miss, and then it's a tall mountain to get to 43 with only 60 days left.
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I was trying to get a handle on your chances. What do you think is a reasonable figure for the chance the best bet of the day is successful? 90%? 85%? 80%?
I wouldn't be surprised (despite no data in front of me to support it!) if big favs in 6-horse races finish in the money 90% of the time. If those chasing you on the leaderboard can find enough 90% horses, then at least one of them is likely to catch you.
If they can only find horses with an average 85% chance to show, then you're a solid fave to win the tournament. And if they only have an average 80% chance to show on each of their picks, then you're a shoo-in.
Anyway, good luck!
--Dunbar