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Old 05-02-2019, 07:41 AM
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Dunbar Dunbar is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by philcski View Post
Good field and the draw was reasonable for most of the contenders but the morning line is terrible. It's at 138% so expect some horses to float up from their original number.
philcski, that 138% (the total of implied probabilities) corresponds to a hypothetical takeout of 28%. The difference between that 28% and CD's 17.5% takeout isn't as big as one might expect, at least as far as putting up ML line odds goes. If you force the original ML numbers up to fit a 17.5% takeout, then OB's 4-1 would have become 9-2. GW's 5-1 becomes (almost) 6-1. A 20-1 becomes 23-1.

So while you're right that the numbers should float up a bit from the ML, the overall effect may not be very big.
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Curlin and Hard Spun finish 1,2 in the 2007 BC Classic, demonstrating how competing in all three Triple Crown races ruins a horse for the rest of the year...see avatar
photo from REUTERS/Lucas Jackson
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