Some very competitive and intriguing races on International day.
Race 1:
#5 Transcendent: dropping down the handicap to a more suitable rating and should get a decent pace to run at.
Race 2:
There’s no speed in this race at all on paper, so taking a chance with #8 Stay Chill, who showed speed when racing in the UK and might be forced to roll forward from the wide draw.
Race 3:
#1 Arrogant: G1 placed in Aus, put in his best performance in HK last time when dropping into C3. Got a bit of a shuffle that day as well.
Race 4 (Vase):
#2 Chefano: I don’t think he is the best horse in the race nor do I think he is the most likely winner, but at 66-1 on the fixed markets I think he’s incredible value given the small, weak field and that his two starts over 2400m have resulted in a win and a length second to Exultant. He had a couple of excuses to start the season, but this race has always been the target, and with Boudot on board in a paceless race, who knows what can happen.
Race 5 (Sprint):
This has been a tough week for my picks in this race…my original top choice was SCR mid-week and my second pick (#5) got stuck in gate 14, which looks impossible for him given the shape of the race…
#12 Amazing Star has always had talent but finally put it all together last season---his only poor races were when he broke through the gate at the start and then when carrying 133lbs through gruelling early fractions. He wasn’t disgraced in his first try at Group level last time out, running 8th but beaten only 1.75L. He was off two months heading into that and got an awkward trip---he broke like a rocket but had to steady back to get cover. Should get a great trip from post 2.
#6 Tower of London is the only G1 winner in this field and does his best racing when allowed to produce one run around horses and on fast ground, the combination of which he has not gotten in his last three runs. Ideally would have had a prep for this, but he wouldn’t be here if he wasn’t fit.
#2 Hot King Prawn had no business winning last time after sitting 3wd with cover, but just wonder if that run 3 weeks ago sapped too much out of him.
#1 Classique Legend is the co-highest rated sprinter in the world at the moment, but as he’s changed into a HK stable rather than shipping directly from Aus, his preparation for this has not been straightforward and the rail draw probably doesn’t suit him. Could very well just be too good for them, but not for me at a short price.
Race 7 (Mile):
Not much to say about #2 Golden Sixty…13/14 lifetime with a devastating closing kick. Gets to show it on the world stage this time.
#7 Romanised is my shot to juice the exotics. The heavy ground three back didn’t suit and he was probably still feeling the effects of that 3 weeks later. His run last month was just a prep and he didn’t run poorly considering he missed the start and was carrying 140lbs. His form prior to those runs gives him more than a hope of hitting the board here.
Race 8 (Cup):
#1 Skalleti: 12/16 lifetime and just keeps on improving. Has looked really good in his work since arriving in HK and should get a great trip from post 4.
PLAYS
R1 WP 5
R2 WP 8
R3 WP 1
R4 WP 2 (fixed odds at 66-1)
R5 WP 12
R5 EX BOX 2,6,12
R7 P 7
R7 EX 2/7
R8 WP 1
Good luck!
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