Quote:
Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind
The US contingent is particularly laughable for this year's BC Turf, so as long as the Euros handle the Keeneland turf, many did not in 2015 as it can really fall apart by that late in the year, though perhaps the two week break this year will help, any that come should crush our horses. Godolphin doesn't take the same shots in the Classic that Coolmore does, Sakhee aside, and I wonder if they are more likely to wait for the World Cup, unless they are retiring him, to try dirt.
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His record doesn't really play this out but to me he's a bit vulnerable at 12 furlongs with that running style. Then again maybe his running style favors the transition to tighter turns and a shorter stretch. Wouldn't be a concern if there weren't other Euro heavies pointing to the race as he should maul the Americans anyways.
At any rate, he got drilled in the Arc last year and in a 11.5f race last year but maybe that was an issue with Waldgeist (who won both races) or soft ground. His 2 wins at 12f were in a German Group 1 and the delayed Coronation Cup this year, which although on paper had a strong field, you can punch holes in the form. Anthony Van Dyck was an upset Derby winner last year and has performed only moderately well since; Stradivarius is a top classer stayer who was only getting tuned up for the 20-furlong Ascot Gold Cup.
Still, as you said, despite the above, I guess I can't see Arklow or Zulu Alpha getting within 10 lengths of him at any point save the gallop out.