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Old 03-14-2018, 11:28 AM
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Dunbar Dunbar is offline
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Join Date: May 2006
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Quote:
Originally Posted by MichiganMattA View Post
Here’s a hypothetical question: Let’s say that Bolt, McKinzie and Justify all line up in the SA Derby. There are 8 horses total entered so you can spread the remaining points evenly through those 5... what is your morning line ?
My morning line with close to the 15.43% SA takeout would be:

Bolt 9-5
McK 9-5
Just 9-5
each other horse 50-1

If you're asking about a morning line with zero takeout, I'd make it:

Bolt 2.2-1
McK 2.2-1
Just 2.2-1
each other horse 80-1

(Those "2.2-1"s would obviously look like 2-1 if restricted to the usual ML constraints.)

Justify may have more talent, but Bolt and McKinzie have more seasoning. I can't separate them in the chance to win the next outing, if by some oddity all three were in the same race.
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Curlin and Hard Spun finish 1,2 in the 2007 BC Classic, demonstrating how competing in all three Triple Crown races ruins a horse for the rest of the year...see avatar
photo from REUTERS/Lucas Jackson
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