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Originally Posted by SteveHaskin
I just figured if I liked Monba enough in January to put him #2 in my first Derby Dozen, why not have some fun and put him #1 after winning the Blue Grass. Any other year I wouldn't even consider it.
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You sunk Pyro right off of the top 10 - because of a non-effort in a race where the 9th, 10th, and 11 place finishers were last out winners of the Fountain of Youth, La Derby, and Tampa Derby.
Nevermind the fact that the top four finishers had last out dirt Beyers of 33, 58, 76, and 86. - the career top on dirt among the top four was a 93 earned by Kentucky Bear - who was 50/1 on the morning line in the race.
It's not like everyone didn't know that the Blue Grass was going to be pure chaos going into the race - and I think it's a folly to take the result of the race at face value - let alone make such decisive Derby decisions on the basis of the result.
I just don't know where Monba's good race is on dirt. He's run three pretty good races over synthetic - his dirt win came with just an 86 Beyer and a perfect trip (unarguably the fields best trip) - his non-effort in the Fountain Of Youth should be held against him no more than Pyro's non effort in the Blue Grass.