I was looking at Teixeira for 8 years earlier and had decided it was rather stupid, glad to see it was the Yankees that stepped in with the stupidity. Here's the numbers I dug up.
Top ten similar players through Age 28:
Carlos Delgado*(935)
Kent Hrbek*(925)
Fred McGriff*(913)
Jim Thome*(911)
Will Clark*(910)
Jeff Bagwell*(909)
Willie McCovey*(906)
Richie Sexson*(904)
Shawn Green*(901)
Paul Konerko*(899)
The worst case is Hrbek and Green who only made it to what would be year 6 of the contract before being out of baseball. Sexson and Konerko are yet to hit 34 and are already on their way out. So you have a 6 in 10 success rate with those six all being big name players in Delgado, McGriff, Thome, Clark, Bagwell, and McCovey. Here are their average statistics at 34-36.
At 34 - .274 22 HRs 77 RBIs
At 35 - .283 29 HRs 84 RBIs
At 36 - .277 28 HRs 90 RBIs
A solid player but is that really someone you want to be paying $20 million a year? Not to mention that he could turn out a Green/Hrbek/Sexson/Konerko.
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