Originally Posted by knickslions2
I thought the horse ran very well but had everything perfect. Pace wasn't very fast, field was not good and track bias for speed. The derby will be much different conditions and its a tall task to come to US and win it. I most likely won't have him on any ticket unless a few of the stars here drop out in the next few weeks.
I have watched almost all the races from the Carnival live, and although there was still a bit of bias, it was nowhere near as bad as it can be, especially the way it was on Super Saturday. On a completely fair track he still wins by double digits and still demolishes Reride, even if he himself isn't a top 3yo. I agree the field wasn't great, which is why I was dubious about Gold Town in the first place, but the filly looks to have ability and I guess we will find out more in the Oaks.
Don't agree, however, that the pace wasn't very fast. The first quarters are always "slow" because the run-up time is virtually non-existent. He put up solid quarter splits after that, putting in 23 and change quarters from 2-4f and 4-6f. I can admit that I have not been following the Triple Crown Trail, but from looking at the Future Wager PPs and knowing that the pace has generally been much slower since the implementation of the point system, with a good post draw he can definitely get another great trip. The kickback will be much less at Churchill anyways, so he may not necessarily need to lead.
Originally Posted by RolloTomasi
You have to remember that Mendelssohn is owned by Coolmore.
The overarching goal for Coolmore is not to win the Kentucky Derby, but rather to produce stallions.
A track record performance at the Group 1 level with an 18 1/2 length winning margin? Regardless of how he performs at Churchill (if he performs at all), Mendelssohn has gotten his "stallion making" race.
The race was a Group 2, and even if it was a G1 the value would still be much, much less than a Kentucky Derby win. He is a G1 BC Juv Turf winner and a half to Beholder and Into Mischief ergo he is already stallion made.
Merlinsky has a lot of correct sentiments, especially when Ryan Moore reported he was still green down the stretch. What's the point of letting a young runner gallop under his own steam when they won't learn much from it. To win the KY Derby you have to work hard for all 2 minutes of the race; there usually is no coasting to victory. There are some things I still question the connections about, but their race preparation is one that they usually get spot on.