View Single Post
  #68  
Old 06-11-2019, 08:07 AM
Dahoss Dahoss is offline
Keeneland
 
Join Date: Jul 2010
Posts: 10,295
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by Rupert Pupkin View Post
Why would I possibly admit or think I am wrong when you have presented zero evidence to substantiate you rail bias claim?

Look at Strike Silver. He's not even a speed horse these days and he goes out there in :44 2/5 and only gets beat by 2 lengths. If there was no speed bias he would have lost by at least triple that margin, setting those suicide fractions. In that same race, Nitrous was very wide, out in the middle of the track and only got beat by a neck. So I guess if it wasn't for the supposed rail bias, Nitrous would have won. I actually bet on both those horses and lost both bets because I bet Strike Silver to win and place (he ran 4th), but only bet Nitrous to win.

As I said before, if you think there are inside/outside biases and you think you are good at spotting them, then by all means include it in your handicapping. I personally don't think they happen often (and probably never at Belmont with their sophisticated testing equipment). But even if they do happen, I think they are very difficult to spot (unlike speed biases), at least for me. So I'm not going to look for them and I'm not going to include them in my handicapping. If it works for you, then by all means use it.

Anyway, this debate is getting old. I'll give you the last word.
You admitted you haven’t watched every race over the three days...so why would I waste my time giving you examples of something you don’t believe in because as you admit, spotting a rail bias is too difficult for you to see?

Nitrous was on the inside for much of the first 4 furlongs. I gave you an example of a race that perfectly shows the rail bias, you ignored it. H Man on Friday. He spent the whole race on the rail and runner up (dead closer) was glued to the rail until very late when he was going by the chasers. How many more should I give you? Will you at least watch all the races first? Seems only fair to actually watch the races before declaring something, no?

A closer won the Belmont. He was glued to rail. The pacesetter who spent the entire race on the rail was 3rd.

As for suicide fractions, they went 43 and change in the longer Acorn. The Woody Stephens fractions weren’t that fast.
Reply With Quote