Quote:
Originally Posted by Dunbar
philcski, that 138% (the total of implied probabilities) corresponds to a hypothetical takeout of 28%. The difference between that 28% and CD's 17.5% takeout isn't as big as one might expect, at least as far as putting up ML line odds goes. If you force the original ML numbers up to fit a 17.5% takeout, then OB's 4-1 would have become 9-2. GW's 5-1 becomes (almost) 6-1. A 20-1 becomes 23-1.
So while you're right that the numbers should float up a bit from the ML, the overall effect may not be very big.
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I don’t disagree that horse by horse the impact is relatively small... but that’s because it’s a 20 horse field. Let’s take a 3 horse field instead:
Horse A: 4/5
Horse B: 2/1
Horse C: ?
At a proper ML matching takeout, it should be 2/1. At the 138% ML, it’s 1/1, so a huge difference.
My point is on the most important race in the world, where the participants have been known for weeks, shouldn’t we have a pretty tight ML?