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Originally Posted by freddymo
As for the Beyer fig I agree its rock solid and guessed it the night before. Beyer has not been impressed with AP's races, he has been impressed with accomplishments. Kind of sounds like the ole Cigar rhetoric you know he wins but he never wins running fast. I think if Materialty would have won by a nose against AP or Frosted and either of those 2 were 3rd 5 .5 lengths back Beyer would have used 108/09 because it would have given more credence to the Florida Derby Fig. To me the fig is just about as relevant as my opinion on who would have won a hypothetical Preakness between AP and Rachel.
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I'm not sure why you are hung up on the Florida Derby figure as if it is out of line. Does it matter? Upstart and Materiality where non-factors in their classic starts, that doesn't mean the figure for one race is bad. Both ran far below expectations and in fact have running lines that suggests something physically is amiss.
For years now, people have commented on certain big-figure horses at Gulfstream turning back into "pumpkins" outside it's friendly confines. Someone would have to go back and look closer at the average speed figures down there versus those by the same horses at other racetracks to perhaps identify a trend of this happening.
An obvious explanation for this is the permissive medication rules in Florida, which actually allows horses to be treated not only with lasix, but also with a potent fast-acting anti-inflammatory drug on raceday. It would be interesting to see what percentage of starters are treated with this drug.
Finally, it can't be at all shocking to think that figure wise, the Belmont Stakes tends to get lower figures than other races. It's a 12 furlong race. Just because a horse can run a 112 BSF for 9f, doesn't mean it will run a similar figure at 12f.
See Coach Inge's numbers...if you think they are relevant.