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Originally Posted by SteveHaskin
Mr. Byk e-mailed and suggested I chime in and have fun with this thread. Why not? In a year like this, you gotta lighten up. 90% of us are gonna look like dummies after the race anyway, so might as well go down solo and not with the crowd with Colonel John and Big Brown. As far as whether I'm serious or not...a little bit. As far as whether I bet (the Derby)...a little bit. Do I really like anyone this year? No. For a price I'll look at Smooth Air and Adriano, and maybe Court Vision to hit the board. After that, take your pick. I just figured if I liked Monba enough in January to put him #2 in my first Derby Dozen, why not have some fun and put him #1 after winning the Blue Grass. Any other year I wouldn't even consider it.
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Love it Steve. Here is my take:
Kentucky Derby winner: COURT VISION
Kentucky Derby bust: MONBA
Court Vision
Positives:
1) Bred to be a monster. Gulch is one of my all time favorite sires (and runners). He is the sire of many, many good stakes runners, including 1995 Derby winner, Thunder Gulch (who, by the way, was out of a Storm Bird mare, like Court Vision and was out of the money in his final prep, the Blue Grass). The dam, Weekend Storm, is a full sister to the lengendary Summer Squall and a half sister to the equally legendary A. P. Indy. Now, those are some awesome bloodlines.
2) Bill Mott. This guy is way overdue.
3) Won a graded stakes at CD as a two year old. Might like the track.
4) Showed heart and guts winning both the IRQ and the REMSON as a two year old. Need to watch the replay to see what I mean.
5) Late kick. I know some will say he is slow but this horse seems to have a 5th gear that is on display very late in his races. Watch the replays and you will see what I mean.
Negatives:
1) Couldn't run down a blistering pace in the Wood and came home in a somewhat slow time.
MONBA
Postives: None
Negatives: Drug testing much tighter for the Derby so Mr. Pletcher will not likely be able to arrive on site with his bag of goodies. If unsure of this look at his Derby record. It's blantantly obvious. Year in and year out, the super trainers s*#t the bed in the Derby with can't miss runners. Hard to believe the Zito fiasco a few years ago.
Finally, for those sheep that can't look beyond the winners of the prep races (and believe me, that accounts for 85% of the betting public):
Derby winners that lost their final prep:
2007: Street Sense (2nd in Blue Grass)
2005: Giacomo (off the board in SA Derby)
2001: Monarchos (2nd in Wood)
1999: Charasmatic (off the board in SA Derby)
1998: Real Quiet (2nd in SA Derby)
1997: Silver Charm (2nd in SA Derby)
1995: Thunder Gulch (off the board in Blue Grass)
1994: Go for Gin (off the board in Florida Derby)
1993: Sea Hero (off the board in Blue Grass)
1992: Lil E Tee (2nd in Arkansas Derby)
1990: Unbridled (3rd in Blue Grass)
5 of last 18 (28%) Derby winners missed the board in their last prep before the Derby.