Quote:
Originally Posted by moses
With Serengeti Empress winning, can we fully rely on the double will pays to predict the derby odds?
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It's true that there's more room for noise with a long shot having won the Oaks, but there's a lot of data in the exacta pool, and it's pretty convincing that Game Winner will not be in the top 2 in the win pool. It looks close between GW and Max Security for the 3rd fav position.
If you compare exacta payoffs of the 4 of them, here's how often each of them has the lowest payoff when in the 1st position of the exacta: (indicating, most favored)
Imp: 9
Tac: 4
GW: 4
MS: 2
And here's how often each of them had the highest payoff, indicating least favored:
Tac: 0
Imp: 2
MS: 8
GW: 9
Having looked at it more closely, it does look like GW will edge out MS for 3rd favorite.