A 30 point move by a 3yo is not impossible.
Big moves happen all the time. I love to anticipate a big move.
Usually there are some clues indicating it is coming - just beating the 2yo top, pairing tops.....but this one didn't show anything, imho, to indicate such a big move. Couple that with literally last second heavy action by a minority, and one has to wonder.
The horse was a contender, he had the top fig a few months ago. He was cutting back fro the TC prep distances. Had he been bet down to 5-2 gradually, suggesting a lot of people were looking at him, it would not have been an issue.
But the last 36 seconds and a monster move......perception is the only thing that counts. If he won an earned a 95 Beyer.....not suspicious. The discussion would be on his next race.
|