Quote:
Originally Posted by RHT2004
I guess CB is OK. I prefer Hawkish.
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In what kind of race? At a flat mile, I suppose I'd go with Hawkish, too.
But if we are talking about anything beyond 9 furlongs (e.g., The Belmont Derby) you might be in for a world of hurt.
I've only seen the stretch run, but from what I can gather from the chart, the Penn Mile was a curiously run race. Why Maraud, who has done nothing but stalk or sit well off the pace, ended up in a 3-way duel for the early lead is beyond me. Encumbered off a 7-month layoff I can see being a bit fresh and clearly the Live Oak Plantation horse is a one dimensional frontrunner who has already shown he will cave readily if pressured. It was a nice setup for a colt like Hawkish who has a devastating turn of foot, but suspect sustainability. The lugging in and wide action don't scream extra furlongs to me...
Meanwhile, Catholic Boy, already well-versed in late running tactics on the lawn as a juvenile, showed great versatility setting his own pace, absorbing a bold challenge from a top class rival, taking a couple of glancing blows along the fence, checking inside the final furlong, and re-gathering momentum to nail the laboring favorite at the wire. All this while making a return to turf off a couple months layoff after a significant bleeding episode. Throw some of that pace from the Penn Mile in the Belmont Derby and Catholic Boy will be able to position himself early wherever is to his advantage and truly assert himself in the latter stages.
As a side note, I'd be interested in Untamed Domain if he gets an invite to the Belmont Derby. He was taken out of his game (one late run) when making an early move to put some pressure on Catholic Boy down the backstretch (by the way Untamed Domain wore blinkers in the American Turf last out, but apparently the Kentucky Derby wasn't the only chart that was botched by Churchill that day).
And while we're on the subject of 10 furlongs for the Belmont Derby, I'd take a look at the minor Tale of the Cat Stakes at Monmouth today over a good turf course. Divisidero's half brother Gunnison rallied sharply late to tag the Sam-Son Tapit colt Strike Me Down after those two separated themselves from the rest of the field at the top of the stretch. Not sure about the class--though they are both bred in the purple--but they sure seem capable of handling more ground in the future.
Finally, the Artie Schiller colt in CA, Fibonacci is back working again after missing about 30 days after his latest win in late March. Not sure if he has a prep race he can point for other than a conditioned allowance against his elders (if Santa Anita can actually fill such a race), but he's another who looks suited to the distance.