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Old 05-03-2021, 10:23 PM
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RolloTomasi RolloTomasi is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by King Glorious View Post
In regards to Dream Shake, I wanted to ask something. The horse came within a head of winning a $500k, grade two race at Churchill on Derby Day. What would that have done for his vaiue?
I'm not particularly worried about his value; I'm worried about his longevity because he appears to have talent.

To your point, I don't think it would have done anything more for his "value" that any other graded stakes would have. The Derby Trial is not an important race, never has been, and isn't now no matter how much they dress it up.

A cursory review of the winners tells you that. Between 1990 and 1995 it produced some nice horses (although Housebuster was already well established), but that was when it was not pigeon-holed as a 3yo sprint division race and not buried on the undercard of the Kentucky Derby.

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In an era when we are lucky to get 10 starts out of them before they retire and each start is possibly their last, was it really that bad a move to try to strike while the proverbial iron was hot?
Again, the Pat Day Mile is not an important race. You might have had a point if we were talking about him running in the Kentucky Derby, but then he would have been hopeless in that race anyways.

Also, the iron was not hot. He had done nothing beyond a sharp maiden score and his last 2 were completely underwhelming even though some people seem to think he had a strong chance in each of those races.

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If you're looking for the easiest way to build a career, I would agree with you that staying in California and running in an easy race like the Barrera would be a better move.
Again, not interested in "building a career" for some stallion advert. His connections should be trying to help the horse reach his full potential, which was probably considerable after his maiden score, but most likely has been decidedly compromised with this pipe dream campaigning. And now I wouldn't be surprised if he busted a gut in this second-tier race, when he could have gotten back on track with a score in the Barrera (if he was good enough), setting him up nicely for the Grade 1 Woody Stephens 3 weeks later.

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But the horse was 7/2 in one of the top races of his division and earned $94k and a placing in a grade two. Would winning the Barrera really have been better for him?
You'll have to explain to me how the Pat Day Mile is a top race. I understand it has a large purse but so do races at Delta Downs and Charlestown.

By the way, winning a graded stakes is better than placing in a graded stakes. And it's less taxing when you run out of your own stall against a small field. That's important when a horse's career has been delayed until 3 years of age and is lightly raced.

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Hell, it's not crazy to think that the field he beat in his maiden might be tougher than what he'd face in the Barrera and then when they did ship him, wouldn't you be saying running third in weak California fields and then beating a weak field in a 5-horse Barrera?
Failing to win a route races doesn't negate his chances cutting back to one-turn. And it wouldn't matter what my opinion was of him ahead of the Woody Stephens if he ended up winning it. I'd would just be wrong in that case (although to be clear, I'm not questioning the horse's talent, I'm questioning his management).

By the way, in a sensible world, Flightline would be in the Barrera, too, as well as a couple of prospects from Baffert's barn (Freedom Fighter, Triple Tap, Following Sea, Laurel River) and The Chosen Vron. I doubt it will come up weaker than his maiden race, which thus far has only produced Law Professor (another SA Derby also-ran) and Bezos (who I'm guessing we won't be seeing again for some time).

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Personally, I feel like we got a better barometer of how good the horse is here than we would have had he stayed home and run in a much weaker race.
The problem is--considering the way the race played out and his previous "into the frying pan" starts--that it might also have been his last good race period.

And we didn't even discuss how well bred he is for the turf...
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