My early Super Saturday stakes race thoughts.
The Kelso-
Itsmyluckyday and River Rocks are my A’s. Vyjack is my B/C horse. I think River Rocks is a legitimately good horse. He is obviously very fast and I think he has a legit chance to wire this field. 5-1ML is crazy. I don’t see him being over 3-1 at post time unless they get CRAZY on Itsmyluckyday.
Itsmyluckyday is clearly the horse to beat cutting back to 8f. He should sit a dream trip off the 4 and 5 and might prove to be too much. Vyjack could be finally sitting on a big race, clearly he would need a lifetime top to win this, but I can see it happening. What happens if the 4,5,7 all go crazy on the front end? I’ll take Vyjack as the only closer all day over Golden Ticket. Golden Ticket got a dream setup and dream trip last time and it appeared like he was going to hang again…. He just got up vs much lesser. I don’t want him at all in here. He is 8-1ML, I think he will be closer to 5-1 at post time, where Vyjack will be closer to 10 or 12-1 at post time.
The Beldame-
Kind of a subpar edition. It’s not NYRA’s fault though. Other than Close Hatches who else is there in this division? Princess of Sylmar is finished and Beholder is staying in Cali for a G1 on her home track. Anyway….. If Stopchargingmaria wins, I lose. I don’t think she is very good. I hope the public doesn’t realize this though. I want her to be 5-2 or less off of those two G1 wins at Saratoga. Stanwyck and Fiftyshadesofhay are my A’s and Belle Gallantey is my B. I think any of them can win and don’t have a strong opinion other then I don’t like the ML favorite.
The Flower Bowl-
Tough race for me. Alterite’s BC last year wins this. Tannery has races that win this and she loves a turf course with give in it. They are 8-1 and 15-1ML. Im going to end up using 5 of the 9 horses in the pick 4. Abaco and Strathnaver are my A’s. I’ll be in really good shape if I get one of them home. Alterite, Tannery and Stephanie’s Kitten are my B’s. Clearly think the Ballston Spa is a strong race then the Beverly D where a 2nd tier Euro won at almost 11-1.
The Vosburgh-
On paper there are 5 speeds. How do they not all hook up and collapse this race? I know this happens a lot, where they let 1 horse just go off alone, but how can that possibly happen in here? I’m playing the race like this. The 3,5,6,7,8 hook up and kill each other. Palace and Coup De Grace are my A’s. I really hope that 8-1ML holds up on Coup De Grace, he would be the play of the day at that price off of a rough trip in the Kings Bishop. Salutos Amigos is my B/C horse. I’ll use him on at least 1 pick 4 backup. He ran a good 2nd to a horse who I think is very likely to wire the Kelso.
The Turf Classic-
Small field. Again, not NYRA’s fault. Who else is there in this division? I’m using 1,3,5…. One of them will win, and I’ll be live in the pick 4.
The JCGC-
Wicked Strong and Moreno are my A’s. Long River is my B/C. I don’t get Tonalist. Wicked Strong has beat him 2x head to head this summer. I think Wicked Strong is just better, and better suited for the 10f. Moreno is the fastest horse. The two problems with him are Big Cazanova and the distance. I do think he makes the lead though and if the Cali horse does not go after him he will be hard to run down. Long River gets another chance at 25-1 or more….. I would rather have him at his price then Zivo at like 5-1. Long River still has a few races that win this and he could sit a real cozy 3rd or 4th and get first jump.
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