[The Indomitable DrugS]

Not exactly two of the easier races to do figures for - but this is what I have for yesterday's two Derby preps...

Arkansas Derby (96 pace 98 final)
Blue Grass (67 pace 96 final)

Here's my updated pace figs so far for all the Derby preps at a route distance:

Dirt: (14 preps) Ranked from Fastest Paced to Slowest Paced

#1: Fountain of Youth (114) Leader at pace call: This One's For Phil

#2: Rebel (105) Leader at pace call: Old Fashioned

#3: Southwest (101) Leader at pace call: Silver City

#4: Arkansas Derby (96) Leader at pace call: Old Fashioned

#5: Florida Derby (94) Leader at pace call: Quality Road

#6. Illinois Derby (93) Leader at pace call: Perfect Song

#7. Wood Memorial (92) Leader at pace call: Lord Justice

#8: Gotham (89) Leader at pace call: Mr. Fantasy

#9: Risen Star (84) Leader at pace call: It Happened Again

#10t: Holy Bull (83) Leader at pace call: Bear's Rocket

#10t: Sam Davis (83) Leader at pace call: A P Cardinal

#12: Louisiana Derby (79) Leader at pace call: Papa Clem

#13: Tampa Derby (78) Leader at pace call: Join In The Dance

#14: Lecomte (75) Leader at pace call: Au Moon


Fake dirt: (9 preps)

#1. Sham (103) Leader at pace call: The Pampelmousse

#2. San Rafael (97) Leader at pace call: The Pampelmousse

#3. California Derby (86)

#4. El Camino Real Derby (84)

#5. Lane's End (83)

#6. Santa Anita Derby (81)

#7. Bob Lewis (73)

#8. San Felipe (69)

#9. Blue Grass Stakes (67)


* Blue Grass Analysis: General Quarter's trip in the Tampa Bay Derby was unquestionably a worse trip than I Want Revenge had in the Wood Memorial.

GQ - a horse with enough raw speed to win his debut going just 4.5 furlongs - and a horse with enough quality to win the Sam Davis from on the pace with a triple digit Beyer figure - lost all kinds of position going into the 1st turn .. and found himself dead last (!) after six furlongs at the pace call in the Tampa Derby .. a race which was the 13th slowest paced of the 14 Derby preps run as dirt routes this year.

Instead of being ball game over - and a total non-effort ... he managed to pass five horses in the rapidly run final 2.5 furlongs of the Tampa Derby.

Mediocre jockey Jamie Lopez - who lost 33% on the betting dollar - more than double the takeout - from 237 rides at Tampa so far this meet was replaced by Eibar Coa.

General Quarters did manage to win the Blue Grass .. but the workmanlike nature of his win considering the slow pace leads me to believe he's a little better horse on dirt than he is on synthetic.

Hold Me Back and Terrain were the two most victimized by the dawdling pace in the Blue Grass. You can upgrade both of them a little next time they run again on synthetic ... but both prefer synthetic tracks ... especially Hold Me Back.


Ark Derby: This race was supposed to be all about Old Fashioned - there was no Silver City - and that should have made him a lead pipe cinch. He just didn't relax at all like he did in the Remsen .. never seemed comfortable and always wanted to get on with it inspite of his riders best efforts to relax him.

Papa Clem: who ran downright terrible when an ugly 2nd in the La Derby - improved markedly over a fast track to win.

He always figured to handle the dirt - as his sire is Smart Strike (same sire as likely synthetic haters Curlin and Fabulous Strike) and his dam Miss Houndini won a Grade 1 stake race on dirt in just career start #2. Play against him next time he runs on a wet dirt track.

A pair of setup closers in Summer Bird and Win Willy finished 3rd and 4th and were both aided by a very solid pace. Win Willy proved his upset in the Rebel was probably due as much to the wet track as it was the scorching fast pace that set his late run up.