[Kasept]

Hail and Cass..

Sent2Stud has a very accurate description of what we try to do with the selections.

The 4 horses are more or less a 'graded entry' system. In my case, the #1 and #2 horses are the two that I believe have the best chance to win at the best value. The A. and B. horses are those that I believe may be worth considering as win candidates, but seem more likely to be best employed in exotics. It's not dissimilar to Steve Crist's well-publicized A-B-C-X concept.

People's betting methods vary SO WIDELY these days, that the opinions of guys like Matt and I shouldn't matter to players beyond the horses included as contenders.

It is not practical, or possible, for us to be telling anyone what PRECISELY to do because we cannot possibly know their prefered bet. Looking for P3 and P4 options? OK.. these are horses you need to consider.. Looking for an overlay to bet W-PL? OK.. there's a 15-1 Matt or I like as top choice.. Want exotics candidates to use with a key horse that looks unbeatable? OK.. there's three horses Steve likes underneath.. Etc..

You have to realize too that these are selections formulated WAY before the races are run. Just because any of us like a 5-1 closer on paper at 8am, it doesn't mean that we bet them at 3:15pm when the prevailing bias is for speed after 4 races have been run. We're not going to tell anyone "Bet these plays" when there's no possible way of knowing what the conditions turn out to be once the racing has started...

The selections that I've been doing since starting Derby Trail in '03 have tried to be universal so that advanced players can see my opinion while those less accomplished can try to play "blind" with boxes and get into the game without getting slaughtered.

I tend to disagree with the premise that you can't make money long term boxing either... I've made money long term boxing. Period. By passing on beatable chalk, 3-4-5 horses boxes have been tremendously profitable for me over the years. Exactas from $200-$1,200 make up for a lot of misses, and though I key horses more than I did the first 10 years since I started to play seriously, I STILL BOX OFTEN when I have a group of horses whose potential makes them all concievable winners.

For Breeders' Cup, I gave out 1-2/A-B selections with 2 longshots to consider in each race. Exacta and Tri boxes of the 6 horses in all 8 races would have cost $1,500 and returned $7,500. That was a budget of $150/race. Too much? OK. Just exacta boxing was $240 ($30/race) and that brought back about $1,000.

To give you an idea of what was possible, an ATRAB listener used the info I gave out on the show and on the website to construct a $20 Early P4 BC play that paid $6,800. And he had it 10X. I myself got beat in the Sprint to miss the P4, but obviously, what was offered as insight combined with his view gave him the ammunition to win $68,000. The other night, Hooves' 4 horses in the Turfway nightcap scored an $11,000 trifecta. A 'blind squirrel' $24 tri box ($1) returned $5,500... That means you could make 230 similar bets without hitting before you went through that money, and I can guarantee that there would be plenty more modest tri hits within that skien of 23 race cards (10 race/day)...

So anyway, the point is that the selections are there for you to use as an augmentation to your own handicapping... The same way I look at what my pal Steve Grabowski (DRF) likes in a race when I'm undecided about a horse. Many times I'll see that Grabo likes someone that I'm ambivilent about, and I'll include them because I respect his opinion. Same applies here.

We appreciate the opportunity to bring it to you...

Steve