Quote:
Originally Posted by Indian Charlie
I'm having a hard time thinking of a scenario, at least a plausible one, in which chrome loses. This is barring injury, of course.
Maybe Social Inclusion loves the track and runs off, but that's about it. The field is uninspiring, and Tonalist is not much.
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We've seen horses that were much more dominant in the first two legs get beat in the Belmont. For the most part I would say that practically every horse that wins the first two legs has looked on paper like they would probably win the Belmont.
I don't see Social Inclusion winning. He may not even run. If you like Social Inclusion and CC, you should probably bet them both right now. You can get +110 on CC right now and if he scratches you get a refund. If you think he is practically a cinch, then getting almost 6-5 is a great bet. You can get 25-1 on Social Inclusion right now and both CC and SC have to run or you get a refund.
I thought Tonalist's last race was very impressive. Granted it was in the slop and there is always the chance that the slop made him look better than he is. I loved the way the horse finished. He looks like he may be able to handle the distance.
And I think Wicked Strong, Commanding Curve, and Ride on Curlin are all legitimate contenders. Even a few of the others have an outside shot. There have actually been plenty of times where I was confident that a horse going for the TC would lose but I still lost because I failed to come up with the winner. I think this time my main bet will just be the "No" bet that Dunbar had posted and try to see if I can find it at around even money or -110. I'd probably even lay -120. There is another bet offered where you can bet against CC and get +180 if he gets beat by over 1 1/2 lengths. I will probably make that bet too.
I didn't see any chinks in CC's armor after the SA Derby. He didn't get tired in the least bit and I thought he would be able to handle the 1 1/4 miles in the Ky Derby. But in the Ky Derby I thought he got a little tired at the end. I don't think he looks like he wants to run much past 1 1/4 miles. On the other hand, we don't know if anyone else wants to either.
Anyway, the combination of me thinking that CC will have some trouble with the distance coupled with my belief he will regress because he ran so hard in the first two legs, makes me think he is extremely vulnerable.