Quote:
Originally Posted by Rupert Pupkin
Practically all trainers think the TC is hard on horses. The thing they don't agree on is whether or not the TC should be changed. The opinions on that are mixed. Some trainers think it is too hard on the horses and it should be changed. Others trainers (such as Asmussen) think that changing it would make it easier and that would lessen the accomplishment of winning the TC.
I agree that changing it would lessen the accomplishment because it would make it easier. Despite that I still think they should probably add an extra week between races because I think the breed is more fragile than it used to be and I think the current schedule is simply too hard on the horses.
From a selfish point of view, I hope they don't change it. In terms of handicapping, I love it the way it is right now. The reason I like it so much is because it it so much different than any other races and you have to handicap it totally differently. Most people have no clue how to handicap these races and it gives a person who understands what it takes to win these races a huge advantage over the general public.
The simplest TC angle of them all is to bet against the winner of the first two legs in the Belmont. Don't get me wrong. I'm sure it won't work every time. I'll get burned eventually. I could even get burned this year. Maybe CC will win the Belmont. I don't think he will, but anything is possible. Like any other bet, I don't expect to win every time. However I think that betting against horses in the Belmont that are trying to win the TC is one of the best bets that there is. I'm not just saying that in hindsight since it's worked 12 times in a row. I was saying it over 20 years ago.
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I'm having a hard time thinking of a scenario, at least a plausible one, in which chrome loses. This is barring injury, of course.
Maybe Social Inclusion loves the track and runs off, but that's about it. The field is uninspiring, and Tonalist is not much.