Quote:
Originally Posted by Rupert Pupkin
I agree with you to a point. I wouldn't want to make major changes to it. I think one of the things that makes it so intriguing is that it is such a huge challenge. But I think it would still be a huge challenge if they added an extra week between the Derby and Preakness. Then you would have three really tough races in 6 weeks instead of 5 weeks. I'd be on the fence about adding one more week between the Preakness and Belmont.
I agree with you that you shouldn't fix what isn't broken. But I think the TC is partially broken. It's not totally broken because it is still extremely popular and there are a lot of great things about it. But I think it is partially broken because it ruins so many horses and I think it has gotten to the point where it is really too difficult to win all three. It's all relative. If CC wins this year and then another wins the TC in the next 5-10 years, I will say I was wrong. It may in fact be a fluke that no horse has won in 36 years. I don't think it's a fluke but I could be wrong.
But at what point would you guys agree that I am right? What if CC loses this year and not a single horse wins the TC in the next 24 years? That would make it 60 years with no TC winner. At that point would you admit that maybe it's too difficult? By the way, if it was simply a matter of difficulty I probably wouldn't care. But it's more than just difficult. It's really hard on the horses and I think it ends a lot of careers. So a combination of those two things makes me think that it may be worth tweaking just a little bit.
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I will agree you are right when you can actually provide statistical backup to your assertion that the TC is too hard on horses. Only three runners in the Derby came back for the Preakness and they ran 1, 2, 4. And the winner and place horses are coming back for the Belmont.
That Bloodhorse piece Steve linked to lays out very well why the Triple Crown is so hard to win. And the biggest factor is just that there are a lot more horses foaled today than in the past. And that many more horses going to the gate in the TC races. As the article states, Smarty Jones beat more rivals in losing the Triple Crown than did any of the actual winners.
For racing, the biggest benefit is having a TC on the line- that's what gets people to Belmont, and what makes them watch on TV. Whether CC wins or loses is irrelevant in terms of audience. Does anyone really think, if CC wins, the average non-racing fan is going to say, "Wow, normally I don't even know what the Travers is, but now I cannot wait!"
Changing the schedule would be nothing other than a business decision and some things should be beyond the reach of what is most profitable. The TC should belong to the fans.