This whole conversation started here about whether the TC is unduly hard on horses (unduly hard mainly because of the spacing), and if so, whether or not the schedule should be changed.
Some people say that we should not change the TC because of tradition. My opinion is that tradition is not a good enough reason to keep the TC the same. This particular spacing only goes back to 1969. It's not as if they've been doing it this way forever. In addition, times have changed and horses aren't as sturdy as they used to be. Horses can't run 20 times a year any more.
I admit that horses get hurt all the time, even if you give them plenty of time between races. But that being said, I don't think you can point to any other 2 or 3 races that so many horses have come out of either totally knocked out, or injured. Sure there have been horses that have run well in all 3 TC races and come out relatively unscathed. But I think the percentages are very poor. There have been so many horses that were never the same after running in those races. There have actually been plenty of horses that were never the same after just the first two legs (Bodemeister and I'll Have Another come to mind).
With regard to your pointing out that many horses have come close to winning the TC the last 36 years, that is true. And I think many horses will continue to come close. If you have a horse that is a relative standout, I would expect him to win the Derby. And if he is a very sturdy horse, he will probably win the Preakness too. But in the vast majority of cases, I would expect the horse to regress by a few lengths in the Belmont. They might regress by 1-2 lengths or they might even regress by 5-10 lengths. It's not an exact science. If you win the first two legs you are probably the best horse and I would expect the best horse to be competitive in the Belmont, even if he regresses by a few lengths. However, when you are running in a grade I against top horses, it's tough to win if you're not at your best. You may be competitive but you're probably not going to win.
CC could win. I don't expect him to but it is certainly possible. I think his chances have improved the last week with the announcements that several legitimate contenders are no longer being considered for the race.
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