Now let's look at the Avondale Guineas 1-2-3.
PUCCINI
colt
Encosta de Lago – Miss Opera (half-brother to six-time G1 winner Sir Slick)
Owner: Monovale Farm (no Derby wins)
Trainer: Peter and Jacob McKay (no Derby wins)
Rider: Michael Walker (Military Move 2010)
Not sold at auction; retained by the breeders.
(Starts:1st-2nd-3rd): 13:4-1-3
Stakes races:
1st Great Northern Guineas (G2)
1st Waikato Guineas (G2)
1st Avondale Guineas (G2)
3rd Champagne Stakes (L, 2yo)
4th New Zealand 2000 Guineas (G1)
4th Levin Classic (G1)
5th Matamata Slipper (L, 2yo)
He took eight starts to clear maidens, but since then his record is four wins from six starts, with two G1 fourths. Any thoughts of his Great Northern Guineas win being a fluke have been destroyed by brilliant wins in the Waikato and Avondale Guineas, dominating from in front after a rocky trip up to and around the first turn. His performances along the road to the Derby have been unbelievable, and he towers over his opposition in terms of what he’s achieved so far. The rightful and deserving favourite for NZ’s greatest race.
Odds: opened at 30-1; 17-1 after GN Guineas; 8-1 after Waikato Guineas; now 3-1f.
RISING ROMANCE
filly
Ekraar – Post Romance (Ekraar is the sire of 2013 Derby winner Habibi, as well as other G1-winning females Shez Sinsational and Ekstreme)
Owner: John Carter, Brian Carter and Ross Powell (no Derby wins)
Trainer: Donna and Dean Logan (Habibi 2013)
Rider: Michael Coleman (Cut The Cake 2003, Xcellent 2004)
Not sold at auction; retained by the breeders.
(Starts:1st-2nd-3rd): 7:3-1-1
Stakes races:
1st Royal Stakes (G2)
1st Trevor Eagle Memorial (L)
2nd Avondale Guineas (G2)
3rd Eight Carat Classic (G2)
Since her shock win as a 35-1 longshot in the Trevor Eagle, Rising Romance has just got better and better with every race. She dominated in the Royal Stakes, and then, after a six-week break, came back with a strong-closing second in the Avondale Guineas. She looks like the only horse out of that race with the potential to turn the tables on Puccini in the Derby. It’s deja vu – an Ekraar filly, trained by the Logans, running a solid race in the Avondale and about to peak in the Derby. Can she follow in Habibi’s footsteps? The Logans would become the first trainers to win the Derby back-to-back since Mike Moroney in 2003-4.
Odds: opened at 40-1; 5-1f after Royal Stakes; now 4-1 second-favourite.
GLORIOUS LAD
gelding
Falkirk – Luscious Lass
Owner: K Lau, S Fung, S Wong and D Chan (no Derby wins)
Trainer: Shaune Ritchie (Military Move 2010)
Rider: Mark du Plessis
(Starts:1st-2nd-3rd): 7:3-2-1
Stakes races:
2nd Wellington Stakes (G3)
3rd Avondale Guineas (G2)
4th Waikato Guineas (G2)
One of the most consistent horses of this year’s 3yo crop, Glorious Lad has never finished further back than fourth – and that fourth in the Waikato Guineas was arguably unlucky. And you have to take notice when Shaune Ritchie, trainer of Derby winner Military Move and Oaks winners Keep The Peace and Artistic, says he’s “the most exciting 3-year-old I’ve ever had”. Finished solidly in the Avondale Guineas last weekend. But Falkirk is a speed sire, and there are doubts about Glorious Lad at a mile and a half. There’s only one way to find out, and that’s on Derby day.
Odds: opened at 27-1; 11-1 on Jan 12; 6-1 second-favourite after Waikato Guineas; now 7-1 third-favourite.